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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (13296)	5/9/1999 4:15:00 AM
From: Compadre	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Vitas: Here is some data worth noting on the NAZ: Volume peak date market peak date Retrace from 9 mo cycle rise 7/18/95 9/13/95 30% 5/7/96 6/6/96 92% 1/23/97 1/23/97 52.5% 10/1/97 10/13/97 51.2% 4/22/98 4/22/98 47.1% 7/15/98 7/21/98 120.5% 1/20/99 2/1/99 26% Average % retracement 59.9% Current cycle 4/14/99 4/27/99 18% and counting Notice that 4/22/98 and 1/20/99 were intermediate peaks of a nine month cycle that were followed by a second higher peak. And the only cycle that did not have a peak within a month was 7/18/95 and coincidentally, it had the least amount of damage. Well, these numbers do look scary, but us bulls hope to have a year like 1995. <GGG> But I have more worrisome numbers. It has been 7 days that the NAZ has been stuck in a tight trading range. It is looking like a rectangle with a violation to the down side on 5/5/99, that was Wednesday. This trading range is 120 points wide, and as we all know by now, this can be reached in 2 days of trading easily. And if you are a trader based on short term TA, your technicals will be in the overbought region tomorrow. And you will be selling creating another lower high on the intraday chart. I have mentioned this before, that this selloff looks very similar to that one of February 1999. But in analyzing it closer it is also like the one on July of 1998 in the following ways: It had a warm up cycle in February, Just like the warm up cycle of April of 1998. Today we are at an equivalent point in the chart to July 30,1998. As I noted to the thread at the close last Friday, my trading system gave a sell signal in the last few minutes of the trading day. Only time will tell. (What a cliché!) And I hope I am wrong! Regards, Jaime