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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rupert1 who wrote (60906)	5/9/1999 6:48:00 AM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

The Max-Pain Analysis is here: ez-pnf.com As I read it, it currently suggests that CPQ will close at $25 at option expiry next week. But look at the huge volume of calls. Will this shift the Max Pain point higher in the coming few days before expiry? Any comments?

To: rupert1 who wrote (60906)	5/9/1999 1:43:00 PM
From: Whys1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Victor, and all -- FWIW here's some TA on the current state of CPQ: CPQ is now trading ~ the center range of its Bollinger bands (21-27 1/2), with the bands continuing to narrow. These bands represent a trading range. Sharp price changes tend to occur after the bands have tightened (narrowed). When the price moves outside the bands, that trend tends to continue. The upper band is now at 27 1/2 indicating that that is the upper end of its trading range. A close above 27 1/2 would signal a continued rise into a new uptrend. Relative strength has been rising steadily since mid April. Although this is not always good as a timing tool, it does signal bullish sentiment, and a steady rise will usually precede a rise in price. 25 day moving average is at 25. 50 day moving average is at 28 1/2. Closing above these prices (especially the 50 day) is also bullish. CPQ has traded below both averages since early February! (note that the top of the Bollinger range and the 50 day average is almost the same. This will be an important area to watch) There is a gap that needs to be filled between 25 and 30. Although there will be resistance at 30, it is important that the gap be filled from a technical standpoint. The momentum indicator is now moving into positive territory.(barely) Money flow and on balance volume hit yearly lows at the end of April, and are now starting to move off of those lows.(not convincingly yet) The last two days are the first "bounce" (positive move up) since the gap down on April 12. Conclusion -- Most, if not all, indicators are turning positive. It looks like ~27 may be the top of the trading range for the moment. It's not unusual to get two or three upward bounces off of the lows before a sustained upward movement. Significant positive news could speed this process. For traders, this is a difficult area to make a call, but I believe we are at the beginning of significant improvement. With the downside limited to 22, long/mid term buyers should not hesitate here. Personally, I think we may get another shot to buy ~23, and if we do, don't quibble about 1/8's or 1/4's of a point. Otherwise, I'll wait until we get a close ~28 to jump in. Watch the volume closely. Going up on average or below average volume may well be a head fake -- we'll need strong volume to sustain a move. This is all just my opinion, and the general market will have significant influence, but there is definate improvement here from a technical standpoint. As I said in an earlier post, 30 by the end of the month is a good possibility. Whether it stays there or not is another question. I hope that this is usefull, and will update it if I see a significant change. Whys1