To: LauA who wrote (24685 ) 5/9/1999 7:17:00 PM From: Marc Newman Respond to of 213177
I don't know about everyone else, but eMachines is reminding me of PowerComputing. You know, fastest growing hardware company ever, great price performance, hitting the bigger slower competitors where they can't compete as well. And then bam, they hit a wall and start losing money. Power was losing money before Jobs bought them out, after making money the previous year or two. They just couldn't scale their business after the easy money was made. And eMachines is probably making no money now either, depending on ISP bundling deals for a lot of its gross profit margin. What happens if Intel and AMD decide to raise low-end prices to protect margins? What if Asia recovers and component prices stop falling as fast as they have been? What if the other competitors in the sub $600 box segment start competing better or new ones show up? Let's put it this way, I wouldn't want to invest in the eMachines IPO and hold the stock for a year. This is not to say that it does Apple any good to have to compete with $599 boxes. My point is just that eMachines is flavor of the year. Apple is doing great and I think the 2.2 million guesstimate that was floating around for iMac annual sales is verrry reasonable. I'm not so sure we can break past $50 and hold it either, especially with options expiration coming up. As I think I said on the MF thread, the P1 is more damaging to the new PB rollout than the iMac was to the then puny 6500 sales last year. Apple would damage the quarter by rolling out the P1 now. Maybe a mid-June special event and then available by late July? Shop demo models to education as soon as possible though so they can make plans. Btw, I think jumping on a new poster for his bullishness is a bit much, as is accusing David Stern of being short. And "Save Our Streams?" I love it! Marc PS--Oh, LauA, Apple generally doesn't price protect unless it is getting close to a new rollout. I don't think the rev B (266 mhz) iMacs had any price protection at all. And they pretty much sold out, as did the G3 desktops in December. Apple is now a master at managing inventory. They do it better than any non-direct boxmaker.