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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pruguy who wrote (16064)	5/9/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: Bridge Player	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

<< My challenge to you or anyone, is to come up with one likely or remotely likely scenario which would cause AOL to miss their earnings anytime in the next 3 quarters....I haven't heard anyone accept that challenge yet..>> How about this "remotely likely scenario" from a post from Larry, which just happened to be the post right after yours? << Also, anyone using the free online service from those small local companies? I have dozens of friends who are quiting AOL and begin to use those free services...>> BP.

To: Pruguy who wrote (16064)	5/9/1999 10:31:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Some "remotely likely" AOL earnings miss scenarios for the next three fiscal quarters, some less remote, some very remote: 1) AT&T puts it together, AOL users switch in droves. 2) Boxmakers adopt GTW-style free ISP; ISP growth slows. 3) Cell phone-style PC giveaways take off, ISP margins shrink. 4) Economy stalls; ISP business tanks with it. 5) Economy roars; expense growth outpace revenue growth. 6) Being 'on the net' falls out of fashion; ISP business slows. 7) Net stocks tank, 'nets can't buy ads, ad revenues fall. 8) Net stocks zoom, issue stock to start ISPs, margins shrink. 9) Return of anti-@aol.com prejudice; subscriber base falls. a) Y2K blowups, either third-party or AOL internal. b) DOJ/FTC/EC/? investigates/sues/sanctions AOL c) AOL restates due to FASB, SEC, or regulatory action. d) Restatement due to fraud. -mb PS - chin up; you'll get the hang of English yet. <g>