To: Jerry Olson who wrote (38914 ) 5/9/1999 6:26:00 PM From: kendall harmon Respond to of 120523
Nets-more from today's ny times: From an interview with Charles A. Morris, who has managed the $5.8 billion T. Rowe Price Science and Technology fund since 1991.... Q. What about Internet stocks? Aren't they likely be the hardest hit in the sector? A. You are already seeing signs that the Internet market is starting to tire. Amazon.com made a series of announcements recently that three months ago would have sent its stock up 30 percent. This time, the stock fell. You have seen some initial public offerings that have been mediocre performers. Indeed, Comps.com, which was priced on Tuesday, finished below the offering price when it traded on Wednesday. If you can get a meaningful correction of 30 percent to 50 percent across the Internet space, the market capitalization of these stocks will start to represent economic reality and encourage institutional ownership. Over the next three years, the median return for the Internet group is going to be negative. But a small minority of those stocks will put up terrific valuations that make today's valuations look low. Q. What is a realistic way to value Internet companies that have no earnings? A. Wall Street has everyone fixated on a ratio of price to revenues. We didn't like that, and for the last six weeks we have been using what we think is a more practical valuation method, which starts with the multiple of revenues relative to a company's market capitalization. Once you get that number, then divide it by the target net margin a company aspires to in the future. This method allows you to compare stocks within the Internet stocks as well as to more traditional companies. Q. How much of an individual's portfolio should be invested in technology over all? A. People should have anywhere from 5 percent to 15 percent of their financial assets in this class. The more money they have to lose, the greater the percentage can be. Q. Have you been raising cash in anticipation of a blowoff? A. Typically, between 3 percent and 7 percent of our fund's assets are in cash. Right now we are on the high side. Q. Which stocks do you like? A. We run a fairly balanced portfolio by sector. Five sectors comprise 80 percent of the fund's assets: software, communications equipment and services, hardware, semiconductors and information services. Our three largest positions are PSInet, a business Internet service provider, America Online and Softbank, which I think of as a closed-end mutual fund for Internet holdings. Our favorite holds include MCI Worldcom, Airtouch Communications, Xilinx, Adobe Systems, Ascend and Cisco.