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To: Robert who wrote (45681)	5/9/1999 9:03:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Robert, it has hung in there pretty well in spite of what's happening. Carl makes some good points and deserves a Dinstiguished Flying Cross for honor and valor under fire. In theory, there has to be some point where the reduction in CAPX industrywide (relative to trend) and the marginal players exiting does kick in. My guess would be that some people thought the stabilization Dec-Jan was it. It wasn't it. Or maybe part of it was, but it was offset by other factors. My theory continues to be that the stabilization during that period was largely tied to MU resolving their "bottleneck" issues. Now if that's true, here you have a situation where one of the most "efficient" players cannot increase production, but in spite of their stance being that its the "inefficient" players screwing up the market, when the market is left to them, prices stabilize (although, it was during a period of strong demand). Now the "efficient" player comes back on like gangbusters and prices tank. The idea that Siemens of all players is responisble for this down leg is ludicrous. They were the ones who killed their UK project at the same time that MU was expanding it own fab capacity by "buying" TI's DRAM ops. So when Appleton rants about other players acting "recklessly", it would be nice to whoever is interviewing him to ask him about his company's own production increases. I think I lost my original train of thought (not that much was coming along the tracks anyway), but... Sorry, time for the X-Files! <g> Good trading, Tom

To: Robert who wrote (45681)	5/9/1999 11:57:00 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Robert Hal has a buy on MU for the last few days. It remains to be seen if this is the buy that breaks the down trend from Feb 1999 ? Larry Dudash

To: Robert who wrote (45681)	5/10/1999 12:03:00 AM
From: Fabeyes	Respond to of 53903

.... I fear I am missing something... Bankruptcy?

To: Robert who wrote (45681)	5/10/1999 12:43:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

My fundamental theory is that the DRAM industry is due for one more good, hard fall. Lots of marginal producers looked at the prices from December to March and said "hey look at these DRAM prices - we can make money at those prices if we just order some equipment" so they ordered equipment and made plans to expand production. Well, DRAM demand apparently softened a bit, and yields came up, and MU solved their back end problems, and lo and behold, falling DRAM prices again. What we need to see is some of these marginal producers throwing in the towel completely, and others throwing in the towel at 64mb and moving to 128mb. Once that happens, MU will be ready to move again, this time a sustainable move. Thus my theory is in complete agreement with Tad. I expect a very rough period in the near future, followed by a very slow long term recovery. You just as well call it Tad's thesis, as he expresses it better than I do, and has access to much more information than I do. My only claim to fame is that I've been around longer, and have been voicing the same general idea for longer. <VBG> As for the near future, I know HAL has a buy on, but my computer is fairly neutral, leaning towards short. I see no reason for a rally here, but it is possible. For what it's worth, I'm currently short, but don't feel strongly about it, and am not recommending it for others. I do expect an opportunity to cover to occur at a lower point than today's price, but have no idea when it might happen. If I had to pick a date for a bottom in MU, I'd say late July or early August. Carl

To: Robert who wrote (45681)	5/10/1999 11:32:00 AM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

I still say we see MU in the teens by Labor Day. My eyeball of the graph of the past two weeks or so says that this bounce is somewhat "pro forma" -- it bounced simply because it almost always bounces when it meets a previous peak on the way down (35 in this case). I didn't see the big volume associated with a bottom. Could Simplot have picked the bottom so perfectly (badly) again? Merrill was right there to issue an upgrade (to dump the shares they picked up from him), so I am thinking that this bounce is simple distribution. July's $70M-or-default interest payment looms, and this quarter, ending May 29 or so, has been a disaster revenue-wise. I doubt that there are any more sugar daddies. Wonder what kind of one-time trick we'll see in the next quarterly report. MUEI fire sale?

To: Robert who wrote (45681)	5/10/1999 11:47:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

robert, think inflection point in eps. one can pump a loss of 20 cents when the prior q was was a loss of 50 cents - just think about the future! things are getting so much better! yee haw. mu made 12 cents this past q. this q is breakeven at best. that is hard to pump. gee, we might lose 30 cents next q, let's pay $50 for this great deal. after all, you pay more for less losses with amzn. what a deal, more losses for less money! -ng- now, mu is sleazy. this q is horrible. the numbnuts who invest in this company don't know it. yet. they know it won't be a blow out, hence they no longer want to pay $75+ for this dawg. the only question is =- when does mu management tell the numbnuts that the q sucks so they can begin selling. there is a 50% chance that occurs this week and massive selling follow. there is a 50% chance they say nothing. june 35s would be a a good gamble with a 50% chance of wing several hundred % and a 50% chance of losing 100%. if mu is still higher than $35 in june then it won't be much longer. this industry is a wreck. 12 cents in quarterly eps shot this bow wow to $80. unreal.

To: Robert who wrote (45681)	5/10/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 53903

Robert, All you have to know to fear MU is that it has risen to current prices under these circumstances. We have a single digit stock value that has been as high as $95 during the last 4 years for no reason whatsoever that has to do with real business. So, you are looking at a well-oiled PR machine, a group of greasy shil analysts, brokerage firms that know they can run this turkey with a few well-placed buys and fund cos. unwilling to sell their huge holdings. So, MU can always rally for no reason. My feelings have long been that the stock will double when they finally declare bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the business situation, which has never been good, is about as bad as it has ever been. The co. has never kicked out free cash flow, hence the huge debt to keep the fabs running, but now is even worse. The price of DRAM is well below breakeven. MUEI is a drag and will be so for awhile. PC sales growth is in its worst condition in industry history and about to fall off the cliff completely. All the diversification scams have proven to be expensive diversions. So, I own puts as this one will always go back down. But you never know when the herd will go crazy again, so use a wise money mgt. system.