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To: Allan M Adelson who wrote (3318)	5/10/1999 9:09:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6180

Allan, Too early to know. I've been watching the news and reading various analysis on the situation there. I suspect that the Chinese gov't, with the anniversary of Tianimen square approaching on June 4th, is all too happy to let the public blow off some steam through anti-US demonstrations rather than against the internal gov't. The Chinese economy has been facing some tremendous challenges with growth declining and joblessness rising. I don't believe they want this anger to reach the point where trade protectionism becomes an issue since that would only be economically self-defeating. (They need our markets more than we need their products). Another issue at hand though is the political stability of the current Chinese premier. He has been facing serious opposition which was apparently heightened by his failure to bring home a victory last month in the WTO negotiations for Chinese entrance into that group. Cozying up to the US is probably not in his interests at this moment so we will see more rhetoric, but whether or not that rhetoric translates into economic or military action is still speculative. On a larger scope, China has been making a bid for increasing its political and military relevance in the Asia region. It wants to replace the US has the center of political and military power there. It will likely eventually happen just given the importance of the developing Chinese marketplace, but only if they are able to maintain their pace of economic growth while avoiding anything that may destabilize the entire region. Nations don't normally alter their alliances to a power seeking to dominate and control them. And there is still just too much distrust between the Japanese and Chinese to convince me that China would be able to woo Tokyo into realigning with Bejing for security ties. Where the Japanese go, Asia will follow. In sum, the political risk of doing business in China has temporarily grown, but we'll only really begin to get a proper sense after several months. Personally, I'm more worried about NATO having another "accident" and taking out Shanghai Thakral's manufacturing operation in Shanghai. Can't wait until we finally extricate ourselves from this quagmire in Kosovo. I personally have better targets for those GPS guided bombs.... <VBG> Just my opinion. Regards, Ron