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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (13408)	5/10/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: Stephen	Respond to of 99985

SO ... I don't believe the price action in IBM is anything beyond a trading play based upon the upcoming analysts meeting. I look for a post meeting sell-off. JMHO ... Stephen

To: StockOperator who wrote (13408)	5/10/1999 2:09:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

StockOperator, >>>> So I am looking for the markets to attempt to break out of this trading range. What happens while this market attempts this breakout is what I will be keenly watching. My call here is to be cautious that's all. <<<<< I TOTALLY AGREE, and I and a few others have been saying that since around APRIL 13. Since then the market has been flat with the DOW up, the SPX flat, and the NAZ down. If one was good enough or lucky enough to get into the cyclicals, they did well. But I think its fair to say that there are more, probably many more who suffered in the HiTECHs compared to those who benefited from the cyclicals/basic materials. We also need to keep in mind that the 15 smallest of the DOW 30 are the bulk of the cyclicals/basic materials, and only trade less than 2 million shares in a day. Dell alone, on a good day, could have as much volume as all of the basic materials(smallest 15 of the DOW). UNION CARBIDE(UK) only has a market cap of 7 billion. And the average market cap of the average DOW BASIC MATERIAL stock(15 smallest) is only around 31 billion. So I am concluding that there are more who suffered since April 13, than those who benefited. Hey, the market can zoom up alot more, but some of us have been calling for caution for over 3 weeks already and that call has been correct in general terms. Some benefited, but more suffered overall(average investor), since April 13. Again, I think you are correct that if the NAZ was to zoom up, that would boost the market, but until that happens and rates remain high we should be cautious. seeya

To: StockOperator who wrote (13408)	5/10/1999 2:09:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Respond to of 99985

Like I said based on the way the RUT traded on Friday I thought it would assault it's trading range - which it is doing as we speak. The key index to watch here imo is the NAZ. It is the one index that has already established a down trend. It is under significant pressure right now to rally hard. Which so far it has not done. Trust me when I say this index needs a big push here. Also remember the catalyst for any shakeout will be the direction in interest rates. Which unfortunately may not be resolved in a meaningful way until the 18th. Good luck trading. SO