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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mister topes who wrote (5051)	5/11/1999 1:15:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 15132

Don - Thanks for helping me try to clarify this research that doesn't jive with what I read and hear. Particularly: Your post is incorrect. Brinker's former timing model issued a sell in the low 2000's in 1988 and followed with a buy in the low 2000's but slightly above the prior sell. If my post was incorrect, it is due to reading the very source you quote above. My post was made after reading the December 1996 "Hulbert Financial Digest" Page 5, paragraph 5 which reads: "The predominant factor in Brinker's track record over the last decade was his investment posture before and after the 1987 Crash. Brinker's portfolios were fully invested during the Crash, yet several weeks after the Crash he turned bearish and went to cash. The upshot was Brinker's portfolios bore the full brunt fo that crash and participated in only a minority of the stock market's recovery back to new highs." Either you are right or Hulbert is right. It would sure be nice to know for sure. In any event, I am happy to learn he has changed his timing model but I would be interested to know what was changed such that we'd have confidence it its ability to call a bear market when the first timing model misfired and needed to be replaced. What most impressed me with the new timing model was its ability to call the dips or "gift horse buying opportunities". I am still interested in what makes one confident it will acurately call a bear. Last thing I want to do is, for example, short SPY for maybe half my portfolio at say DJIA 9200 and have the market jump right on up to 11,000. That would be much worse than buying and holding! Thanks for your help clearing this up.

To: mister topes who wrote (5051)	5/11/1999 12:01:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Don: Re: " However, the timing model currently in use began in 1988 therefore the events of the prior year are not relevant to the current model which has stayed in the market for entire rise since Dow 2365 in 1990. Hulbert currently ranks Brinker in top 3 for market timing with 18.5% annual return last 8 years and 23.6% last 5 years." So what <g>. Did Brinker get his subscribers out of the market before the Great Depression of 1929? Answer that one, Don. Yeah, I have got you now <g>. We all know Brinker failed to get his subscribers out before the Great Depression. Admit it <g>!!