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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (3622)	5/11/1999 11:00:00 AM
From: Mitch Vine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Frank and others... Please take out your crystal balls and give me an opinion. Assuming that individuals will want higher and higher bandwidth to their homes, is it inevitable that they will need hard wires (metal fibre or whatever) to their homes rather than wireless. Let's say for example that everyone wants at least 1Mbit to their homes 10 years from now. I was under the impression that the available spectrum for wireless will make it very difficult to provide this.

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (3622)	5/11/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: Darren DeNunzio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

A few weeks ago, this may have been relevant. While ADSL has been around longer than cable modems, dating back to the early ITV trials, there has been little movement in bringing it to market. RBOCs have been too busy merging with each other and pursuing wireless or long distance. I feel that some telco execs may be afraid to cannibalize T1 and ISDN sales, and others may feel that their previous lackluster ISDN sales may be an omen and repeated with new technical rollouts. It appears that the telco's are still waiting for ADSL costs to come down, and for an accepted standard. Will it be full-rate ADSL, where the download pipe is much broader than the upload pipe, or perhaps symmetric DSL technologies such as single-pair DSL (SDSL) and high-bit-rate DSL (HDSL). To compete with cable modems in the consumer market, however, it will require a cheaper, higher-bandwidth asymmetric service. ADSL modems offering 1.5Mbps downloads have been around for years, but costs have been steep, especially when you include installation costs. As a result, while some of the latest models deliver between 6-8 Mbps downloads, the trend seems to favor the new, g.lite standard, (G.992.2, I think ?) that delivers a modest 1.5Mbps/384Kbps service. Whereas full-rate ADSL modems require a visit to the homes to install a splitter, and perhaps new wiring, g.lite modems have a built-in splitter. Not only can users install the modems themselves, but lower power requirements mean lower-cost hardware. The modems are backward-compatible with the 56Kbps V. 90 standard and, as with the next generation of cable modems, USB interfaces are on the way to avoid the necessity of installing an Ethernet card. The g.lite standard won't be formally endorsed until June, and most modems won't appear until fall, but Compaq is already bundling g.lite modems with the Presario. Most of the RBOCs now offer limited (and not so limited) commercial rollouts. A good example of the more major efforts include Bell Atlantic's Infospeed service and a major DSL launch by SBC into 526 central offices, by the end of the year. These recent announcements have also seen a sharp drop in prices, starting at around $40.00. Despite the objections of ISPs, the FCC has made clear it will continue its hands-off policy regarding cable modem access and the home-page exclusivity deals of vendors like @Home and RoadRunner. On the other hand, the FCC seems to be ready to make the RBOCs open up access rights to their copper to competing CLECs that want to provide DSL service. This spring the FCC is expected to rule that the RBOCs must either resell their DSL infrastructure at wholesale prices or else spin off their DSL operations as independent subsidiaries. The telco's are crying foul about this double broadband standard, but the ruling could prove to be just the push DSL needed. While the "Telecom Act" slowed the rollout of DSL, the RBOCs have been merging with each other so they wouldn't have to open up their local loop to competition. Hell, if I know I an going to have to open up my loop, why should I spend a lot of money upgrading it for DSL? I think however that new regulations will force the RBOC's to move aggressively into DSL. Any comments would be appreciated.