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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (13466)	5/10/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: wmwmw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

<Then why are this years earnings per share growth on most stocks lower than they were 2 years ago with further slow downs in growth expected.> You offered an argument but not a fact. Stocks are priced at future expectation , not current earnings, although current earnings will offer a clue to future. There are arguments regards future growth slow downs. <they are now in the 30-40 range with the end of the growth cycle looming near if not alread past> If the majority of the stocks in the market are near the end of their growth cycle, then the market is near the top . But I am afraid it is not the case. I hope you can prove your point. <Computer stocks that are FINALLY admitting they are a commondity are bargain buys now too since they all are starting to lose money or at least see growth slowing> There may be slowing or may not be slowing. The market has disagreement on this field. As CPQ provide one side of evidences but AAPL and IBM provided the other side. However, the PC sect is weak now, DELL earnings will decide which way to go. Even computers segment will be slowing in next one or two Q, beyond that the future is bright: 1.The technology progress in chip manufacture will significantly reduce PC prices; 2. The coming real time audio and video transmission in internet and disappearance of bandwidth problems will promote interest in owning computers. 3. The global market is far from market saturation. Therefore in the predictable future there will be another wave of high PC demand. As the computer industry is the fundation of current economic prosperity, when PC industry has potential, the economy has potential, which is far beyond 1 or 2 years, IMHO.