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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stefan who wrote (30053)	5/11/1999 12:13:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Stefan, There is still overcapacity if you don't believe it then maybe you should make a first bid for couple .18 "8 fabs that are on block without takers. No over-capacity according to Wilf Corrigan, CEO and Chairman of LSI Logic. Au Contraire, he said at the LSI stockholders meeting last Friday a couple of times that there may be a capacity crunch coming. The first time he mentioned that and the surrounding context, from my notes: Everyone is looking for 2 - 3 upcoming good years for semis. Predicted increases in revenue YOY have been talked in the 10 - 15% range. Now, according to Wilf, in backrooms, industry experts are talking more like 15 - 20%. And, he thinks LSI will do better than the overall industry. Inventories are low, there is broadbased demand. We may even see a capacity crunch. Wilf said he is even getting calls from CEOs of customers often, asking for priority on delivery. 1998 was about 1.5 billion in revenues. Goal of 2 billion in 1999, and Wilf says they're working on doing better than that. The next time he mentioned capacity crunch: 1. How about fabless? Is that the way to go? Wilf, 'fabless can turn into chipless in a capacity crunch.' Laughter. Another thing, with SOAC type chips, with digital, DSP and maybe mixed signal on the same chip you damn well better know what you're doing,or you really won't get any good ones for another reason: no yield. He's saying that the most complex chips really can't be sent out to a foundry because close interaction between development and manufacturing is required. LSI is very comfortable with their "fab-yes" structure. I think I coined a phrase, or have I seen it here? Fab-yes, hmmm. Of interest to semi equip investors: - Global manufacturing: Gresham will go to 0.18 (there now?). I think they might be going to reduce fab size in Japan because Gresham is on line. Don't quote me on this one. Gresham 8" wafers. Wilf, sounding like he was kidding but he was serious, said LSI would like to be about tenth to go to 12". Intel has said they don't want to be first either, so who is it going to be? IBM? The rest of my notes, if anyone is interested, in the URL below. Of course, they're very much from an LSI stockholder's point of view. Message 9415244