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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (44472)	5/11/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: JungleInvestor	Respond to of 95453

Think your calcs are conservative, Brent, because these numbers are not static. Demand is growing and supply is contracting (depletion vs. rigs drilling).

To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (44472)	5/11/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

The weekly API numbers should support stocks through the summer. That is the primary reason I didn't cash out. The drawdowns are going to start showing up soon (probably tonight). I foresee a predictable pattern appearing that will be caused by the traders. If it does, I will be doing the exact opposite of what the traders are doing. I have read that there is a lot of excess african oil, and that Iraq wants to pump even more oil (up to their limit). This should keep reserves from dropping too fast, and will hopefully prevent OPEC cheating. Shell just announced they are cutting European refinery output by ANOTHER 10% due to low heating oil margins. To me this seems to be a GOOD thing. This will temper the oil drawdown while drawing down products (increasing product prices/profits) at the same time. BWDIK?

To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (44472)	5/11/1999 12:36:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Well, maybe not a shortage, Brent, but enough of a drawdown so that we won't have to see the G-word in every news story.<g> We would still have a couple of billion barrels of crude sloshing around in storage but they would certainly be down to comfortable levels. It is so hard, if not impossible, to get accurate S/D figures but I'll try anyway. A WSJ article says that April OPEC was down to 23.6MBPD + Iraq. Iraq, according to the linked story, did 2.17MBPD recently. If Iraq gets $16.50 avg price for the next six months, they would only be able to do 1.8 -1.9MBPD to stay under the $5.26B limit under the UN "food-for-oil" deal. They may not be able to even do that, given the damage to their infrastructure from poor maintenance and excessive pumping. biz.yahoo.com OPEC less Iraq is expected to come down to close to 23MBPD this month. Lets add 2M for Iraq and the current estimate of 44.6MBPD for non-OPEC and you get maybe 70MBPD world supply. World demand is edging towards 75MBPD. Big gap here. Some of it will be filled by increased production, OPEC cheating, non-OPEC reneging on agreements, etc but I still see a major drawdown in coming months. John