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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (19916)	5/11/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: Richard Habib	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Milehigh, Rambus will happen, there will be Rambus/820 enabled PCs sold in Sep. But don't you think the question is one of expectation. It seems to me that part of the logic on this board is that if Rambus earnings begin to ramp in early 2000 to say .25 a qtr or so, you have hypergrowth of 300% or so - therefore PEs in 200-300 range are likely. But there is another possible outcome without assuming failure. Rambus may become the choice for high end PCs only for another year or so with 810 & 810E machines continuing to dominate the market. The market then has time to come up with royalty free alternatives or at least royalty free vaporware. So a possible outcome here is that Rambus happens, earnings ramp to $2 or so and the stock price remains basically flat for at least a year or so because expectations were disappointed and PE decreased to reflect its market. I know it's a IP company, but don't count on the street treating it differently than a memory company. Obviously risk is involved and Rambus is a good high PE stock to look at because we feel the risk can be quantified better than most high PE stocks. But it's quite possible Rambus could succeed as all news items have indicated but remain a relatively poor investment in the 60s. Rich