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To: DaveMG who wrote (89)	5/12/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Respond to of 426

Subscriber numbers 4/1/99 Future of Wireless on Fast Track as cdmaOne Subscribers Near 30 Million Worldwide Fastest Growing Wireless Technology Increases More than 300 Percent in One Year COSTA MESA, Calif., May 12 /PRNewswire/ -- The CDMA Development Group (CDG) today announced that worldwide cdmaOne(TM) subscribers reached almost 30 million, totaling 28.5 million at the end of March 1999, a one-year increase of 309 percent. Rapid growth of the technology is occurring in every world region as operators have added more than 19 million subscribers since March 1998. Within the last year, cdmaOne subscriber numbers in North America alone grew by 440 percent, increasing 6.8 million. After only four years in the wireless market, cdmaOne technology's global adoption and seamless evolution path have contributed significantly to the rapid increase of the technology's subscriber base. In particular, cdmaOne technology's ubiquitous coverage and cross-border roaming capabilities have driven the technology's North American subscriber base, now reaching 8.8 million. To date, cdmaOne deployments are underway in more than 35 countries around the world, with 27 countries already in commercial service, sustaining the technology's position as the fastest growing wireless standard to market. "We are not surprised by the rapid expansion of cdmaOne in every region of the world. As the most advanced digital technology in commercial service today, it offers consumers advantages that other technologies can't match," said Perry LaForge, executive director of the CDMA Development Group. "Japan's recent introduction of 64 kbps data is just one example of the superior services operators are offering consumers with cdmaOne. With 3G capabilities already standardized and set for market introduction next year, cdmaOne operators will be able to maintain the competitive edge the technology brings them. cdmaOne is poised to become the wireless pipeline to the Internet." In the first quarter of 1999, 5.5 million new subscribers around the world began experiencing the benefits of cdmaOne technology. The North America region, comprised of Canada and the United States, now has 8.8 million subscribers, which is a quarterly increase of 124 percent with 2 million net additions. The Asia Pacific, which was the first region to commercially deploy cdmaOne, showed a net increase of 3.1 million for the quarter, elevating the region's total subscribers to 18 million. The Caribbean and Latin America regions, including Puerto Rico and Mexico, have seen growth skyrocket 1245 percent in the past year to more than 1.5 million subscribers. Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the most recent world region to offer commercial cdmaOne service, have all followed the technology's trend of accelerated growth with the past three months seeing an increase of 194 percent. "This tremendous growth represents the net subscriber additions of more than 50 operators around the world offering commercial cdmaOne cellular, PCS and wireless local loop service," LaForge concluded. "In the past few months, new operators have launched service in Japan, India, Argentina, Russia, Bangladesh, Mexico, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic. Continued introduction in new cities in the United States and Canada, the near-term Australia launch and China's plans for commercial expansion of cdmaOne ensure that the unprecedented growth will continue unabated. We expect to reach the 50 million mark by the end of this year."

To: DaveMG who wrote (89)	5/12/1999 7:44:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 426

Some numbers on Royalties/Asic courtesy Jim Frost to think about.. All Thoughts on Growth Worldwide subscriber growth seems to be nicely tracking Q's quarterly MSM shipments on a one quarter lag basis. For instance Q shipped 5 million MSM's in calendar 4Q98. We know they have about a 90% market share in chipsets, so guess 5.5 new subs for 1Q99. Low and behold CDG informs us that was exactly the number. Also note that Q uses ASIC sales in the prior quarter to estimate the current quarter accrual for royalties. These still seem to be tracking to about $15 per new sub, a figure that was discussed at length in prior years on this thread. Thus, 1Q99 new subs = 5.5 million X $15 = $82.5 million royalty. Q reported $77 million accrual for the quarter. Now, we know that 1Q99 MSM shipments were nine million units. If things continue tracking as before that implies 9.9 million new subs in 2Q99 (calendar) and $148 million royalty for the quarter - WOW! Even the most optimistic analysts are way, way under this figure for their estimate of royalties. And it gets better. We know that the 1Q99 book to bill for ASICs was 1.7 to 1. If they are all shipped in 2Q99, that would imply more than 16 million new subs forecast for 3Q99, which in turn implies a royalty figure of $240 million for that period. Now, not even I believe that figure, but this should give some of you an idea of the dynamics when the absolute number of new quarterly subs starts getting large, whether that's 2 quarters from now or sometime next year. Best regards, Jim Message 9492171