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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: andy harrison who wrote (2800)	5/11/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: still learning	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

Re buy recs: Not necessarily, the underwriters may issue buys, but the spillover effect isn't a done deal ("you paid us to take ICG public, so we'll do what we can, but we're not market makers in SFE, so don't push it too far") SFE probably deserves a buy rating on its own merits and this may wake up some of these guys to the stock. Also, the underwriters will undoubtedly tout SFE as a good back door entry into ICGE, but it's not a pure back door, so they won't be as obligated to push it. Don't know Wit Capital anyway. Monsec and RSCO will carry the most weight IMHO. I previously had a 1yr target of 140 for SFE, but am starting to rethink that, and am looking for 110-120 as a possibly more realistic scenario. For one thing, SFE has yet to bring one of its own internet companies out this year, which may weigh heavily on the stock. More importantly, all of the internet stocks will likely see a strong pullback in summer around the June timeframe, as this is historically a weak period for techs. To add speculative fuel, FWIW, Andy Grove today bashed the market model of most of the internets and there are some interesting articles regarding valuations. Closer to home, in conversations I have had directly with Corp/Fin guys at sell-side firms, here's what I'm hearing: Go public soon, if you're going to do so. By the end of the yr there may be some serious winnowing in the inuts, and only those that have proven they can make money or break even will command such a premium. The risk in ICG is that they miss the window for going public before a pullback. Also, even if ICG catches an updraft, there may be some people flipping the shares -- I don't expect the SFE crowd to do so, but I may be wrong on that. I said earlier I would not sell ICG immediately, myself but I will certainly reassess that based on the environment when the IPO hits -- which isn't till July/August. If I think they'll have a one-day runup and that I can sell the shares at say 60 and buy them back at 40, I will certainly do so, but that's a tough bet to make. OTOH, do I think they'' be over 80-100 within 6 months, absolutely, so I'd hate to trigger S/T gains and not be able to get back in. Since most of my SFE is in an IRA, I can't just throw money in to fund it and I know I want to keep ICG long term. This type of scenario, played out a hundred times over, will help determine ICG's price in the first few days. I wonder aloud how much institutional ownership to expect, and how much individual investment in ICG. Didn't mean to ramble so. Anyone with thoughts/comments?