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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: VLAD who wrote (21884)5/11/1999 9:54:00 PM
From: Little Gorilla  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
The Death List (notice ICOS was on the list even before today's run-up)

The Death List was inspired by articles listing overpriced stocks occasionally run in Barron's, the Dow Jones weekly financial newspaper.

A couple of years ago I noticed a stock I'd purchased a few days earlier near the top of a list of overpriced stocks featured in one of those articles. Of course I ignored Barron's advice because I had just finished analyzing the company and I knew it was a great stock.

I decided Barron's might be on to something when I ended up selling the stock for a loss a few months later. I dug out the original story and found the formula Barron's used to create the list.

I used the Telescan ProSearch backtesting program to find out what would have happened to stocks selected according to Barron's formula at various times in the past.

The results were convincing
For instance, the market as measured by the S&P 500 Index soared 31 percent during 1997. The thirty-seven stocks selected according to the overpriced formula on January 1, 1997, on average fell 3 percent during the year. Nineteen stocks dropped in price, and what's worse, ten of those lost more than 50 percent of their value.

I found similar results for other time periods. For instance, the eighteen stocks selected this way on January 1, 1998 rose 4 percent on average during 1998. The S&P 500 Index gained almost 27 percent during the same period.  You can see why I call it the "Death List."

Not every stock on the Death List will drop in price
It just means that these stocks as a group are likely to underperform the market over the coming twelve months.

Here's the list as of Friday, May 7, 1999.

Company
Symbol
America Online
AOL
Ameritrade Holding CL A
AMTD
Andrx
ADRX
Applied Microcircuits
AMCC
Arm Holdings PLC
ARMHY
Ascend Communications
ASND
Broadcom
BRCM
Broadvision
BVSN
Cisco Systems
CSCO
CMGI
CMGI
CNet
CNET
Cree Research
CREE
Customtracks
CUST
Data Broadcasting
DBCC
Electronics For Imaging
EFII
EMC
EMC
Emulex
EMLX
Factsheet Research Sys
FDS
Gemstar International
GMST
Geotel Communications
GEOC
ICOS
ICOS
Immunex
IMNX
Laser Center
LZRC
Laser Vision Centers
LVCI
Liposome
LIPO
Macromedia
MACR
Macrovision
MVSN
MedImmune
MEDI
Mindspring Enterprises
MSPG
Minimed
MNMD
Netbank
NTBK
Network Appliance
NTAP
Network Solutions
NSOL
Novell
NOVL
Providian Financial
PVN
QLogic
QLGC
RF Micro Devices
RFMD
Sanchez Computer Assoc.
SCAI
Schwab, Charles
SCH
SDL
SDLI
Seibert Financial
SIEB
Transwitch
TXCC
Veritas Software
VRTS
Verity
VRTY
VISX
VISX
Xilinx
XLNK
Yahoo
YHOO

The list is updated twice a month



To: VLAD who wrote (21884)5/11/1999 9:54:00 PM
From: Silver Knife  Respond to of 23519
 
Maybe they will work on an aerosol for climactin. I can just imagine that commercial.LOL.

SK



To: VLAD who wrote (21884)5/11/1999 10:11:00 PM
From: Little Gorilla  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
"Climactin", while not already trademarked, was not one of the best ideas! It makes me think of athlete's foot.

"Arouse" is already trademarked -- 3 times:
arouse, the herbal food beverage
arouse, the prophylactic
arouse, the liquid soil fertilizer for crops
plus, "1-800-AROUSE-U", the mail order catalog for adult toys