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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: crc who wrote (1519)	5/12/1999 8:57:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 5853

While I am not George Gilder and do not pretend to speak for him, your question IMO is a key question not only intellectually but in terms of investment. In brief though I suggest that both wireless access (including satellite. broadband "wireless fiber" and CDMA) and fiberoptics (whether cable or otherwise) have bright futures. I have been studying and investing in both for some time now and see many many possibilities now with many emerging as we go. In addition there is are major opportunities in e commerce within the internet which are strengthened by access by wireless or fiber from the business or home (WAVX is an example - as is SUNW). This list of areas to explore and investment possiblities is broad and deep. Good luck. These are most interesting times. Chaz

To: crc who wrote (1519)	5/12/1999 7:05:00 PM
From: George Gilder	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 5853

Cable is ideal where suitable coax already reaches--that is about one fourth to one third of all households. DSL is inferior to cable modems (it is a dedicated circuit with DSL modems on each end and none of the efficiencies that a shared medium offers for bursty data and point multipoint communications and video conferences). But it is widely available and will serve many households that are unreached by cable but are within the 18K foot radius that DSL requires. Its penetration and nominal bandwidth will be somewhat less than cable, perhaps 25 percent at T-1 rates. CDMA wireless will be more expensive than either since it will have to compete with voice for spectrum, but it will be almost universally available at T-1 speeds or below. LMDS and the like will reach millions of businesses and some high end residences reachable point to point. DBS will be universally available but suffer from the limitation of satellite bandwidth and delays. There will be room for many competitors. The local loop will be one of the most hotly contested markets in the global economy. Flying over all will be globalstar, teledesic et al, providing connectivity to portions of the world (about half) unreached by all the other systems.