To: Fred Thornell who wrote (27965 ) 5/12/1999 9:28:00 AM From: Robert B. Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 44908
TSIG mentioned in Internet Stock Report Newsletter. -Rob ================================================== Internet Stock Review Online, Tuesday 5/11/99 Los Angeles 57....77F Sunny. Fur is flying. ================================================== Table Of Contents: 1. Welcome. MP3 Mania. 2. News Reported. 3. New Buys and Sales On Wall Street. 4. News Reported via Audio/Video. 5. IPO's and DPO's. 6. Disclaimer. ================================================== Our web site is at internetstockreview.com We will be published (occasionally) on Monday, Wednesday and Fridays. To subscribe click here: mailto:join-internetstockreview@sparklist.com To unsubscribe click here mailto:remove-internetstockreview@sparklist.com (Leave both subject line and body...blank..please.) ================================================== Welcome. Time To Buy Net Stocks ? "My advice ? Don't buy Internet stocks. If you own any dump them and don't look back." Dean Foust. "...you've got to make a gut call. My gut tells me the Internet is going to be big. No, huge." Linda Himelstein.businessweek.com ================================================== MP3 Mania. With RealNetworks (and its 65 million users) jumping into the MP3 fray, we'll devote this issue to one guzillion MP3 related links. As we've said many times before, we believe the most exciting companies (including some that don't yet exist) to watch in the coming months (or years) are those in music and video (content, distribution, software, etc.). But first a few comments on CDNow (CDNW) which recently reported earnings (or lack of). Some might consider it yet another overvalued Internet stock with a $316 million dollar value at $18. CDNow which is one of two companies on our small (but soon to expand) Internet/Music Watch List. The other on the list is MediaX (MXMX). CustomTracks (CUST) was moved to the regular Watch List; because it is no longer seeking to revolutionize the Music business (see News Reported below) and N2K (NTKI) which was on the Original Watch List was bought out by CDNow. One analyst described the merger as akin to "tying two bricks together and tossing it off the San Francisco bridge." So here is the story, albeit brief. For the first quarter CDNow reported sales better than doubled from $10 million to $22.8 million. Nice. Earnings (loss) however went from a loss of $9.2 million to $19.1 million. How someone can run a business this way is beyond us (though there is a method to their madness) and reminds us of a gambler at the table who keeps doubling down, deeper and deeper into the red. Okay, bad analogy. Try this one: It's like a guy who opens a bar and sells his drinks for less than what he pays for them, because he hopes someday (soon), someone will see this "long line" outside of his bar every night and decide to buy the whole bar--for more than what he paid for it, including recouping what he lost by selling the drinks for so cheap. The math works like this. I've got $1 million dollars. I want to open "DrinksNow." I spend $500,000 on furnishings, fancy glasses, velvet ropes, etc. I've got $500,000 left to operate and sell stuff at a loss. On the average night I lose $10,000 (less at first--but more later--as I get more popular and sell more cheap drinks) on pay, utilities and booze. I've got 50 days to stay in business and hopefully find a buyer. Simple math. During the first 10 days, business is booming. We are all the rage. The newspapers write us up as one of the busiest joints in town. Zagat.com says we are a "must visit" place. From day 11 to 20 the line is around the block. There is no one in town who hasn't been here or who doesn't at least know of us. We've got locals, out-of-towners and even a few international clients. >From days 21 to 30, we begin to sweat. The line goes around the block twice, but we're selling too many drinks. People are driving in from out of state. Damn, we didn't think we'd get that popular. We may start losing more than $10,000 a night. There's been rumors that some "big money" people from New York have been in, but no offers yet. Day 40, Prince Ali Bin Ohmygolly strolls in. He's worth $200 million. The place is packed to capacity with 2000 revelers. It's love at first sight. He's always wanted to own a bar of his own and he doesn't want to own a slow bar. He does a few quick calculations. 2000 customers, he'll pay $1,000 a head. Boom, he whips out a check for $2 million. Suuuweeeeat. Here's the keys. Buh, bye. Now you understand. CDNow by contrast has 2,000,000 customers. Talk about a party. Each "head" is currently being valued at about $158. And guess who just walked in the door ! Carlos Slim Helu ! Forget $200 million, this guy is worth $6 billion. Hello. Hola. Esta Muy Bueno. Still not for the faint of heart. Even with him buying 947,000 shares. In case you were wondering how anyone could compete with DrinksNow during their client acquisition phase, we of course have an answer. Better looking girls (or guys). It's called content. Scroll down to #33. channel4000.com Short List of audio/video and music players: Audio/Video: AudioHighway (AHWY) Broadcast.com (BCST) DynamicMedia.com (DIMG) InterVu (ITVU) Mpath Interactive (MPTH) RealNetworks (RNWK) TSIG.com Music: CDBeat ( ) CDNow (CDNW) CD Warehouse (CDWI) Diamond Multi Media (DIMD) Goodnoise (GDNO) K Tel (KTEL) Launch Media (LAUN) MediaX (MXMX) MP3.com ( ) Navarre (NAVR) Platinum (PTET) Spinner.com (IPO) TCI Music (TUNE) ValleyMedia (VMIX)