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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (59120)	5/12/1999 12:20:00 PM
From: 18acastra	Respond to of 132070

MFC Bankcorp, MXBIF, good business, 6x P/E, near book value: Suisse Bank trades on US exchange. 12.2mm basic shares, 14.9mm diluted shares (convertible debt): -$60mm net cash = $4.50 share in cash $25mm cash $50mm marketable securities $10mm liquid/excess receivables ($35mm total receivables) $26mm debt -$90mm hard book value = $7.00 share in book value but royalty interest on books at $1.4mm generates steady $8mm/year in EBIT (flows into EPS), and real-estate on books at $4mm worth between $10mm-$15mm -Sum of the parts analysis = $16/$17 share Bank generates $15mm/year EBIT = $105mm value at 7x Royalty interest $8mm/year EBIT = $56mm value at 7x Net Cash = $60mm Real-estate = $12.5mm at midpoint -Catalysts: Developing an internet strategy that may be announced soon *May be coming to US to market their story in June, and nobody likely knows it as it is a small-cap, underfollowed, undiscovered name What do you think about this one? JMHO.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (59120)	5/12/1999 12:26:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, Chris P has a question for me that i can't answer Message 9489699 Help Tanks Mike

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (59120)	5/12/1999 9:27:00 PM
From: ForYourEyesOnly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Pd & Pt: Hi Michael! Thank you for your response. I am glad that we share an interest in these metals. "I think their sales go into a dropping pattern, and they have been the big barrier to $700 on platinum and $500 on palladium. " It is clear that Russian sales have been allowing consumption to grow without an increase in production, and that is what makes this interesting. But I have strong doubts about whether it will be $500 Pd and $700 Pt, or $700 Pd and $500 Pt. What is the reason that Pt prices "should" be higher than Pd prices? I guess it is because of their relationship in the autocatalyst market. The "common sense" understanding is that Platinum converters use only about a tenth of an ounce of Platinum (10% of that is Rhodium), while Palladium converters use about 0.2 to 0.3 ounces of Palladium. If we assume similar catalst performance, then based on the consumption volume the price of Pd should stabilize at half of that of Pt, or even lower. For example, if Pd exceeds half the price of Pt, which would now be $175, the theory goes that autocatalyst users will start to switch to Pt. But the market action does not reflect this at all. Pd has been close to Pt in price for some time, but there is no clear market action to reflect this. Pd users are aggressively buying Pd. Pd moves violently up and down....it seems like they MUST HAVE their Pd, and they will pay whatever they have to. But at the same time, they "think" that somehow the price is too high, and they sell off whenever news comes out. If some of this demand were to go to Pt, wouldn't we see some of the same action in the Pt market? Why don't we? Engelhard bought Pd again yesterday. They hold 6700 long positions, and virtually NO SHORT POSITIONS! They only hold 900 long Pt positions, and 300 short positions. Does this look like a user who thinks he will be switching to Pt? Not to me. I have a hunch that something is wrong with the theory that users can easily switch between Pt and Pd. Is it possible that Pd is necessary to meet certain low emission vehicle specs? What are your thoughts? Something tells me Pd will be above the price of Pt, and soon. Thank you for explaining your trading style. I just wanted to know what direction you are headed right now. Looking forward to your ideas, THC PS: Any thoughts on uranium? Another great consumption/production imbalance.