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Politics : Bill Clinton Scandal - SANITY CHECK -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel Schuh who wrote (47237)	5/12/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: one_less	Respond to of 67261

Speaking of 3rd party....heres a copy of what Bob wrote a while back. From: rbr@clark.net Date: March 30, 1996 Subject: The Perot Factor II: Including Trends 1964-1993. On 03/20/96 I reported the results of a recent Gallup poll that indicates that Ross Perot is drawing support almost equally from President Clinton (Dem) and Senator Bob Dole (Rep). That data merely vindicates the results of exit polls after the 1992 election (for more info see article "The Politics of Fear" (at: polaris.net. The trend of U.S. voter registration and voter self-identification with one party or another since 1964 has been a steep decline in registration and support for the Democrat Party, with an equal increase in registration and support as Independent (or no party). The Republican Party currently holds the same pct% of support in 1993 as it did in 1964. Of course there are up and down movements in the years between 1964 and 1993, but the trend and the end result is clear. 1964 1993 Difference ---- ---- ---------- Democrat Party 58% 31% -27% Republican Party 29% 29% no change Independent/Other 13% 40% +27% These are summary results of research I have done which includes as much polling results as I could find between the years 1964 through 1993. So far I have not found any data in the archives for >1993. But, I'm still looking. The sources of information used include the following: From the UNC Institute for Research in Social Science (IRRS) database, which is available freely on-line; -General Social Surveys 1972-1993, -Louis Harris Polls, -National Network of State Polls, and -USA Today Polls. I am not finished with my research yet (meaning that I hope to find even more data), but this is a draft synopsis of my findings of the overall political party trends in the U.S. from 1964 to 1993. There are gaps in the data that I hope to fill with additional research, but I found enough information to observe a clear trend. If anyone has better or more sources of data that I could access on-line please let me know. Given the above information, one can postulate even further that not only does current (1992-1996) data indicate that Ross Perot (Independent) draws equally from the two leading party candidates; but, in the 29 years between 1964 through 1993, virtually the whole foundation of the "Independent" movement away from the current leading parties drew most heavily from the base of support of the Democrat Party. Over the term and trended out, the Republican Party base has remained stagnant in terms of pct% of the voting population. (The Republicans peak year within my data was 1986 with 39% of registered voters). Most importantly however, is the observation that as of 1993 the PLURALITY of the voting population are either registered as Independent and/or do not identify themselves with each of the establishment major parties. It is interesting to note that the same numbers regarding voter registration and self-identification of the voting population seem to vindicate Ross Perot's often repeated claim that 1992 exit polls indicated that if the voters had simply voted "their conscience" instead of deciding to limit their vote to the conventional media's interpretation of "winnable" candidates, that he would have received 40% of the popular vote. This also helps to answer one of my questions in my previous post about where Ross Perot can/needs to go to get another 19% support to build the plurality. As I predicted, he needs to take more away from President Clinton than from Senator Bob Dole. Perhaps Ross Perot can gain a foothold on this additional base of support by developing a voting coalition between the Reform Party and the Liberal/Green oriented "Third Parties '96" coalition. Just an observation, I have no particular insight into this. But, there is only so much room outside of the established party machinery, and to succeed, a working coalition of all major independent initiatives will be required. As a reminder and for continuity, here is what I posted on 03/20/96 regarding the "Ross Perot" factor. ---- Since Ross Perot has made loud and clear noises that he would be happy to be the Reform Party's candidate in 1996 I thought you all might like to know about the recent polling results. The TV talking heads are still today chanting the mantra that a Perot run would hurt Dole more than Clinton. Let's see what the Gallup polls indicate.... As of 03/10/96: Clinton vs. Dole Clinton v. Dole v. Perot "Perot factor" ---------------- ------------------------ -------------- Clinton 54% Clinton 47% -7% Dole 42% Dole 34% -8% Undec 4% Undec 2% -2% Perot 17% 17% Sure Perot takes from Dole 1% more than Clinton, but that was about the same margin's noticed in exit polling data in 1992. The point is though that it is almost even, 1% in this context isn't even relevant. P.S.-stop by and visit my Web site, "The Center Of The Web" sometime. Regards, Bob Reinhardt clark.net ---- Regards, Bob rbr@clark.net clark.net (home of the 'Center Of The Web') EXAMINING AND PORTRAYING "THE CENTER" IN AMERICAN POLITICS