To: Bill Harmond who wrote (56475 ) 5/13/1999 9:25:00 AM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
Enterprise Software News – 11 May 1999 3 vertical industry applications. Having seen the writing on the wall, management last year embarked upon a strategy to develop document centric packaged applications which would sit on top of its core enterprise document management system (much in the same way that Enterprise Resource Planning systems evolved from a single customized application into a series of packaged application modules). In 2Q99 the company rolled out the first in these document centric applications branding them the Innovation series which included: 1) iQuality for regulatory compliance, 2) iTeam for project management and 3) iMarketing to streamline the flow of marketing information to the field organization. However, the company ran into Y2K related issues, where large deals slipped out of the quarter, before these products could have a measurable impact. Management sees no near term relief from this pattern and we expect the impact from this product cycle (the Innovation series and the company's latest upgrade to its core document management platform, code-name “Piper”) will have more of an impact in FY2000. Wednesday, May 5 th n Computer Associates; CA D-3-2-7 Price EPS FY99 (E) EPS FY00 (E) P/E CY99x 5 Yr Growth (E) $42.50 $2.32 $2.60 17 15% Doug Robinson, Senior VP of Investor Relations and Yogesh Gupta, Senior VP of Product Strategy outlined CA's product families: Enterprise Management for systems and network management, Information Management encompassing Database and Tools, and the Business Management division housing business application products. Discussing its view of the business, CA sees the mainframe market as fairly saturated, although stabilizing, and intends to focus on opportunities in the client/server systems management market. CA will focus its services business on high end engagements, which are fewer in number but produce higher margins. The company reiterated that the Platinum deal would be accretive to earnings in the first 12 months after the acquisition is completed, but it will likely drag down overall corporate margins. We remain on the sidelines until this merger is consummated. n Great Plains Software; GPSI C-2-1-9 Price EPS FY99 (E) EPS FY00 (E) P/E CY99x 5 Yr Growth (E) $34.94 $0.85 $1.07 37 30% Doug Burgum, Chairman and CEO, and Terri Zimmerman, CFO of Great Plains made the trek from Fargo, ND to present to the group. Great Plains has effectively brought enterprise applications to the mid market space by focusing specifically on this segment and not being tempted to reach up for potentially larger deals with bigger customers. This reduces the complexities of the company's offerings and keeps its message to the market clear for the Partner organization. The Partner channel enables Great Plains to keep sales and marketing costs relatively stable and maintain more linear pipeline close throughout the quarter. Burgum stated that Y2K “is not a factor” and a new product cycle should fuel continued growth, with the only gating factor being a wide enough distribution channel. The company's potential customer base remains large and their sales model is high-volume transactions and affordable ASPs, characteristic of the Windows NT platform. n Informix; IFMX D-2-2-9 Price EPS FY99 (E) EPS FY00 (E) P/E CY99x 5 Yr Growth (E) $6.72 $0.42 $0.56 16 15% Our visit to Informix could not have been timed any better. We arrived for our meeting with senior management 60 minutes after the company announced that the Chairman and CEO, Bob Finocchio, would be stepping down for personal reasons in mid-July and would be replaced by Jean Yves Dexmier, current COO and former CFO of Informix. Wes Raffel, the head of Informix's Internet group, actually led off the meeting and explained Informix's new strategic initiatives in the e-commerce marketplace. Although e-commerce represents a small percentage of its current revenue stream (approximately 5%), the Internet presents a significant market opportunity for Informix to showcase its technological prowess. However, the big news of the day, the management hand-off, consumed the majority of our time. In summary, although we don't like the timing of the transition, we do see several positives: 1) Dexmier has been working side by side with Finocchio over the past 18 months - if he hadn't performed during that time we expect Finocchio would have replaced him, 2) Finocchio will be staying through the remainder of 2Q99 to smooth the transition period, 3) we expect Finocchio to maintain an active role in the organization as Chairman of the Board and 4) Finocchio's options are still under water which means he has a vested interest in the continued positive performance of the company. Thursday, May 6 th n Axent Technologies; AXNT D-2-2-9 Price EPS FY99 (E) EPS FY00 (E) P/E CY99x 5 Yr Growth (E) $9.31 ($0.01) $0.44 NM 40% Axent's President, John Becker, presented the company's assertion that it provides both best of breed technology and broad-based security solutions. With the Internet Tools and PassGo acquisitions now completed, Axent stretches its security solution further onto the Internet and up to the mainframe. Axent's goal is to simplify security for a customer through its four step methodology: assessing