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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: still learning who wrote (13673)	5/12/1999 3:50:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Learning, considering that we are coming off a 4 year cycle low that included a significant hedge fund bailout, russian collapse, presidential crisis, asian crisis - yadda yadda, maybe wollanchuk is understating the potential -g- I was just looking at the value line geometric, we blasted off the right shoulder (which was in the 3/3-3/24 time frame and also a double bottom in the a/d line) of an inverted H&S pattern and broke the neckline off the July 98/jan 96 tops and did a little retest of it on 4/19, then rocked off that to new highs. I think the extreme bullish sentiment is misleading here, there were high sentiment readings off the 90 and 94 bottoms also. just some zoo doo -g-

To: still learning who wrote (13673)	5/12/1999 4:08:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

SL, i agree that crude oil has a ways to go, especially the '$42 in eight years' forecast does not seem all that outlandish to me. my opinion in this case is based on fundamentals, as demand for crude is climbing steadily, while supply is clearly shrinking, with all the large non-opec fields slowly but surely depleting. the rest of the forecast strikes me as a recitation of arbitrary numbers; nobody really knows where the stock market will be in a few months time, that's just guesswork. if he had said something like "we may see a blow-off that could carry the market higher than anybody thinks now" i'd say it's a view that describes a possible,even plausible scenario. but to say the dow will reach 16,600 within weeks or months doesn't make sense to me. how can he possibly profess to know that? btw, it is virtually impossible for all the predicted price rises (oil,gold,C$,stock market) to occur concurrently. if oil 'goes to $27/bbl. soon' the bond will tank, and with it the stock market. so i'm not inclined to take such forecasts too seriously, no matter how much praise was heaped on the forecaster in the past. considering how crowded the bullish camp has become recently, i'm merely worried that yet another 'super-bull' has added his voice to the chorus. regards, hb