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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (44625)	5/12/1999 5:49:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Well I am not so sure they want $16 - $18 oil. Even with the recent rise in the price of oil, the Saudi's are still projecting a budget deficit of $5 billion. arabia.com They have a 24% unemployment rate composed mainly of young men with too much time on their hands. Idleness is the devils workshop. They know they need to diversify their economy and this takes lots of money that they do not now have. This country has some pretty severe economic problems that will not be cured overnight. Am I suggesting that the oil business is not cyclical, perish the thought, but I don't think you'll see too much pumping in the near term when they are getting 50% more money with only a 7% cut. They have never managed the boom and bust cycle to the degree that you suggest before, therefore history books argue against their ability to do that this time as well. The burden of proof is on them. Maybe it's different this time. Who knows. Anyway Wollanchuck is 14x market timer of the year, which probably spans the bulk of his public career. I think his record merits at least an open minded listen.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (44625)	5/12/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: Aggie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

K. L., howdy, I believe too much is made of OPEC's ability to control the market. The oil economy has dramatically changed since '73, and it is now a beast of tremendous complexity. To control a market you must be able to measure, monitor, and predict it with some accuracy, for one thing. Does something come to mind, i.e., the "missing barrels", for example, or projected Asian Demand? Do we really think that OPEC's market intelligence is better than the western news/information apparatus? Of course not. Affecting the markets is very different from regulating them. I believe that OPEC, while wielding the enormous blunt instrument of production capacity, is fundamentally unable to control the price of oil by adjusting production. The mechanism for cause - response - effect is simply not there. What we end up with are the kind of huge mega-swings we have witnessed in the past few years which are, in the final analysis, the result of bad or untimely information. OPEC must realize by now that attempting to control the oil market is akin to hanging pictures with a sledgehammer: you get'em hung, but you end up with holes in the wall and mashed fingers. I think we will see OPEC command exerting stiff leverage behind the scenes to enforce compliance, while outwardly trying to show mild leadership through example and occasional light nudges. Regards and Good Luck to All Aggie