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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sector Investor who wrote (13401)	5/12/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: WebDrone	Respond to of 42804

Sector, my humble opinion Having been wrong so many times some how will not deter me from expressing an opinion. I think you are right- we may move in to the $14's, but will pull back. Perhaps it is due to the economics of options and arbitrage, or perhaps it is just that MRVC has had a fantastic run, the show is going to be over, and a rest is healthy. My plan is to continue waiting, and I'm hoping for a pull-back to buy my June 10 calls back. The longer I wait, the more time value ticks off. I think we have seen that $12 had some very decent support. IMO, there is a lot to like. In the "old days", when did we ever hear about MRVC in a press release? When did IR ever send us an email? When did we ever hear about potential multimillion dollar customers? Never. Things are changing for the better. The company is no longer not for sale. It's like that old bad joke- "...now we are just haggling over price." Also, the company is out of the day-to-day operations business. The price run-up seems to be due to their good strategic planning of their new research efforts towards exciting products in exactly the right market. I think these guys know how to maintain a technological lead, but are not so hot at operations. In the long run (2 years), they need to improve operations- but I think they will be bought out by then. Short term, I think you are right on with your guess on price movements. I'll just hold my core position, and see if I can't buy back my calls for a little cheaper next Friday. MRVC is sure a more fun company than it used to be, eh? Web

To: Sector Investor who wrote (13401)	5/12/1999 9:59:00 PM
From: Michael H. Dragon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Sector, I can't see us going over 15 prior to option expiration as the open interest on May 15 puts is 0 and on the May 15 calls ,it's 284.I think we have enough good news to keep it above the 12.5 strike price but can't see it exceeding 15.

To: Sector Investor who wrote (13401)	5/13/1999 11:41:00 PM
From: Bruce L	Respond to of 42804

Re: Uncertainty and options expirations I'm no options expert, but it's been my conclusion- from the (painful)school of hard knocks- that short term out-of-the money purchases of call options is usually a sucker bet. E.g. May 15 MRVC's. That's why I usually, as in this instance, sell them. Also, it's seemed to me that stocks that have been moving up in a nice uptrend -like MRVC - often seem to tantalize prospective buyers of options by pushing the price up to and over the strike - at least temporarily - only to recede back just below. The commonly observed phenomena of closing within a quarter of the nearest strike. Without uncertainty, of course, no one is going to buy these calls. I've heard that MMs make extra income from the sale of options, and if so, they would have an incentive to manipulate the share price - which to a very limited extent they can - to facilitate this end. Enough blather about generalities. I agree with someone else's observation that 15 isn't a resistance point at all; our next current obstacle now is 14 1/4-3/8. This is where the stock closed in Aug '98 before the plunge and it's exactly where we've several times touched in the past several days. If we break through this resistance, we'll break immediately through 15. Today (Thurs) was disappointing. Bearish forces gradually took control and pulled us under Wednesday's open. I see a bearish enveloping pattern in today's chart. Tomorrow I think we'll go lower, but not lower than 12 3/4. JMHO. Next week, however, I have a feeling we will in fact break through resistance and touch 15. WHY? Because MRVC is now partly in the limelight. We've finally been noticed. Volume though off today is way up as is block trading. In short, I think there's a fermentation process underway; I don't know what's going to bubble up next week, but I think something will. Most of us hope so. Bruce