Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (9423)	5/12/1999 9:46:00 PM
From: FIRENZA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

The Company - Cable & Wireless Optus Since 1992, C&W Optus has grown rapidly into one of Australia's largest companies, with over 1.7 million mobile phone users, almost 2 million long distance customers and more than 5,000 employees. Today 'Optus' is a well recognised brand and has strong market shares in its key businesses. We believe the combination of our advanced fibre optic and extensive broadband access networks passing 2.2 million homes provide C&W Optus with a superior technology platform to deliver integrated communications, information and entertainment services to our customers. optus.com.au news.com.au

To: Elmer who wrote (9423)	5/12/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: Bud Fox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

David, how does Excite's revenue impact your projections? What about a merger with Roadrunner? I have found your posts very interesting and would like your opinion on how these two possibilities might change the timetables. Thanks

To: Elmer who wrote (9423)	5/12/1999 11:29:00 PM
From: GraceZ	Respond to of 29970

David- I think your observation is valid, yet I believe that this company is being valued by the street along the lines of a company like AOL rather than with a company like CSCO. tscn.com You can see that the earnings growth in the last two years for AOL is way above what you are projecting for ATHM. This will either happen to ATHM in the next two to three years or the stock will retrace rather precipitously. Right now we are in that "Honeymoon" period afforded Net stocks. It is expected to ramp up very slowly for the first three years of infastructure buildout and membership aquisition and then explode. This quality of networks is covered exhaustively in both of those books I mentioned (a little too exhaustively for most people's taste) Now, whether or not ATHM will be able to do this is a matter of GREAT debate on this thread. The general idea here seems to be that the rate of sub growth is being constrained by the ability of the cable partners to build the network and install the users. I believe, in some parts of the country this is the case ( Northern California, where there are only early adopters!). I happen to live in a part of the country, Northern Baltimore County in Maryland, that had one of the earliest roll outs of ATHM. I can tell you, in my rural location I have upgraded cable, but I'm not schedualed to get ATHM service in my local loop for another thirty to sixty days. But, most of the other areas here in Baltimore County have the upgraded cable running past their homes and have had it for well over a year to year and a half. Why are these people not signing up in droves? If you live in this area with the service running past your house you can get it installed within a week. Yet, I see only the "early adopters" of my friends, family and clients getting it. They have been doing demos of the service since its inception at a CompUSA near here. Why aren't they signing up? This is a fairly easy thing to answer if you have ever sat down at the diner table with an average family and the subject of the internet comes up (and this new, faster, always on connection). There is frequently one computer literate person paired with another person who tends to see the computer as, at worst, evil or, at best, a waste of time. People are either fasinated or horrified by the intrusion of this thing into their lives. But, because of the benefits that this thing will and does provide....we are winning the battle, slowly. The early adopters are spreading the word and one day, probably right around November, 10, 2001, about 10 million people are going to decide ALL AT ONCE that they want this new way, (gotta have it), to get on the internet . This is when we find out just how long it takes to install a new customer! Hopefully the major infastructure will be built by then. If you are going to compare ATHM to another successful company, you would do best to compare it to AOL rather than a company like CSCO....because, that is what the investment community is doing. I think if you go back two three years on the posts about AOL you will find a post almost identical to yours about your concerns on valuation.