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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kip518 who wrote (39936)	5/12/1999 11:34:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Kip, Some interesting stuff there, but I don't buy it. This person labels the action up to '29's peak as Large degree wave 1, with the resulting decline as wave 2 into 1932. Wave 3 is apparently what this analyst has us in now, with wave 1 of 3 into '72's peak, wave 2 of 3 into '74's low, then wave 3 of 3 into '87's high, wave 4 of 3 into '87's low, then 5 of 3 is what we're in now. Ewave rules state that wave 3 cannot be more than 7 times wave 1 in size. This wave 3 from '32's low could then travel no higher than 2674 before it exceeded its limit and disqualified and voided the count. Thus, the count was disqualified in '87, which probably caused the crash!! <g> (Excessive optimism). My long term count, on the other hand, has wave 1 finishing up at early 73's peak (around 1077), wave 2 ending at 4/80's trough (around 770), wave 3 ending at 10/97's peak (8184), wave 4 ending at 10/98's trough, and we're in wave 5 now for another 2 to 8 years of strong bull market. Notice how the wave 3 in this count does not violate the 7X wave 1 rule, as 7 X 1077=7539 + wave 3's 770 beginning allowed for 8309 as the high for the rally into the summer/fall of '97. Now you should understand why the 10/97-10/98 correction ravaged the world's markets the way it did (especially the lesser developed ones). Because it was only the second largest degree possible correction in financial markets the world has ever witnessed (1973-1980 the first). And one should also now understand why the subsequent rally after this enormous correction was so strong...indeed the strongest rally in a 6 month time period the world has ever witnessed, if one considers raw net addition to worldwide market cap as well. Regards, David

To: Kip518 who wrote (39936)	5/13/1999 5:38:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

K, I do not have the tools to evaluate that post either. All I know is the market is near a peak trendline based on a Kagi plot which does NOT consider time but sequence of moves. On the two prior occasions this trendline was touched, we had a sell-off to the lower trendline which, at this point, is below 8,000. Bill

To: Kip518 who wrote (39936)	5/24/1999 12:04:00 AM
From: CNC	Respond to of 94695

The Elliot Wave Theory was highlighted by Robert Prechter in 1984. Paraphrasing from "Trading for a Living" by Dr. Alexander Elder "...Prechter had been writing an advisory letter for many years with modest success, When the bull market penetrated the 1000 level, people began to pay attention to this young analyst who kept calling for the Dow to reach 3000...in 1987 he appeared to vacillate, first issuing a sell signal then telling his followers to buy. As the Dow crashed 500 points adulation gave way to scorn.some blamed him for the decline, his advisory business shrank, and he largely retired from it" CNC