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Non-Tech : Barnes & Noble (BKS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (1146)	5/12/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: Jim Spitz	Respond to of 1691

Also, keep in mind that the MM model is different on the NYSE. jimS

To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (1146)	5/12/1999 9:49:00 PM
From: Daskin	Respond to of 1691

But why all of sudden traders start to pick up their calculators? Lost of interest makes more sense IMO. Maybe people don't see BNBN has a bright future or BKS will not benefit from a likely improving earning report? Maybe both. It still doesn't make sense to me.

To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (1146)	5/12/1999 9:55:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1691

I disagree. I believe BNBN will be the biggest net IPO of the year and BKS will suddenly become very undervalued after its success. I also believe that BKS wants the underwriters to keep their stock from being used like a yoyo prior to the IPO, then dumped and shorted afterward. They don't want BKS turned into a DBCC (47 back down to 15 in two days). They prefer to be a stronger version of of UIHIA after the IPO, to rise and then keep rising. I see nothing incredible about underwriters sacrificing a few million to box the price of BKS in this week. But by next week, with the media exposure going, they will WANT to let the price go into the 40's so long as they consider it sustainable. Goldman Sachs has gone on record as disliking traders and they are big and smart enough to keep them at bay. Thousands of traders would like to buy now but won't until they see the price start gapping up. Therefore GS will keep it from gapping up. I think you underestimate the power of these underwriters, their concern about extreme volotility and their intent to make A LOT OF MONEY off these two stocks both short and long term. BKS is a great buy now but if you sell this week you are not smart. My prediction 36 by Friday, 38-40 next week, 43-45 a week from Monday when they raise the price of the IPO, and even higher on IPO day if BNBN multiplies in value like I think it will. As several posters have pointed out, if BNBN goes high enough and holds that price (deemed a smaller but growing version of Amazon) then BKS's piece of BNBN will be worth it's current market cap alone. That gives investors (not traders) the impetus to buy and hold BKS long into the future. I'm very long BKS, but a little patient.

To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (1146)	5/13/1999 12:22:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1691

Glenn, some things you are neglecting in your analysis: BKS is expected to grow earnings at the rate of 52.3% next year and 29.6% the year after, and then assume a rate of 21.2% per annum thereafter. By contrast, BGP is expected to grow at 8.6%, 15.8* and 20.5% for the same periods. Secondly, You have not factored the effect of Ingram into your calculations. I expect that to be a major money maker because it is the wholesaler for AMZN (I believe about 60% of their books are purchased through Ingram). Thirs, I believe that Borders is a bad comparable because they have stumbled badly. Look at the stock chart to see what I mean. Finally, there is nothing rational about internet "valuations", and the valuations established at the time of an IPO bear little resemblance to what shareholders in a frenzy will do to them. Look at NITE and SWS as an example of what happens. Or look at CMGI. In any event, discounting the restricted shares by 40% does not make much sense given that background. You should also note that growth through BKS is selling at a significant discount to growth through the S&P500. Bottom line is that I have no idea where BKS will trade if momentum investors hop on board. It is my feeling that the stock will see about $50 shortly after the IPO, and depending on how investors treat BNBN the share price of BKS will be anybody's guess. TTFN, CTC