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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Compadre who wrote (13769)	5/13/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Jaime: I guess it is a bit late now but this is the first free time that I had since my post to LG. When I posted to LG, I think the INDU was up over 100; the SPX was up over 9, the Nasdaq Composite was up over 20 and the NDX was up over 18. There was a small negative tick and the ARMs was in the high .60s and low .70s. The ISDEX was up about 6 points, the DOT was up about 5 points; the SOX had just broken out of its ascending triangle and it was up over 10 points. However, since I do not have volume to go with the SOX, I ignored it. NYSE advances and declines were about 1700 to 1100 in favor of advances; NYSE advancing volume led declining volume by better than two to one. but the NYSE volume was only moderate. The TRAN was down about 30 but I considered it related to the rise in oil today due to the news from OPEC. The Utilities were up about 4 too. As you can see, this pattern was wrong for a strong market in our current market run. The INDU was too high in comparison to the SPX--and it was caused by IBM's new INDUnet status. The Nasdaq composite and NDX should have been up over 40 but they were about half that. The ISDEX and the DOT should have been up by around 17 or 20 each or so. The ARMs looked good but the volume was unimpressive and there was a small negative tick . Based on this, I concluded that the overall market was going nowhere, my views about a topping pattern were reinforced, and my next major position will be in index puts which I expect to start accumulating in June. Tonight I will do my analysis, evaluate the state of market internals, and with luck, my views about a topping pattern will be further reinforced. Currently, my total concentration is on a potential 1000 point plus decline in the INDU. I do not know if it will happen but everything is falling into place.