To: donald martin who wrote (33797 ) 5/13/1999 3:21:00 PM From: ahhaha Respond to of 116767
Answer to first question: carrying costs. Storage costs. Insurance. Mice. Consider: please deliver 1 ton of gold to my office. Let's say you do that. Then you have to sell the bars into the real gold market , bid 200/oz ask 400/oz. How do carry this gold except for in an armored car? Well, you do it through banks. They take care of all those details for a price. You keep the barlets in your safety deposit box, and then chaos closes the bank doors. Good thinking, end game. 'Bugs triumph in concept only. There is no consequence as many have stated on this thread in allowing others to borrow your hard stuff. You have to allow them to do that. No one can borrow unless you enable them to do it. All the discussion about price movement is nothing but a paper shuffle game with people having dreams about what quantity of paper they wish to exchange for what other. The whole game is completely evanescent. Everyone loses at that game, so don't play it. Fast forward: most shorts are effectively hedged and they unwind the hedges either profitably or unprofitably. Naked speculation has a negative expected return and so the pros don't do it. It is only the greedy public which does, because the public never learns or believes if they do learn, that that game is a loser. To the pros it is only a matter of whether the random walk gave you a good year or not. They get paid the same in any case. There is the bonus money paid to the lucky. Profound. You can make any argument you want. Don't you know that everything is unfair because all prices are constantly changing? Massive short squeezes are 99.99% inventions of the imagining public. Mostly it happens to one or two individuals and only then because they were excessively greedy. Since gold lenders, buyers, etc., don't trust one another because it is the nature of the beast, there never is collusion. It is possible to try to collude, but it always blows up in your face even if you can make the slightest degree of progress in the unprofitably inevitable consequence of doing it. Usually the government intervenes to show how much they like to protect the people from the greedy capitalist pigs and in doing so prevent you from shooting yourself in the foot. It is a form of corporate welfare. This achieves the greatest bad for the greatest number. It is what has made the socialist 20th century so great. No one ever tells about their loses. They only tell about their gains. The brokerage house industry does not want the public to know the truth about trading stocks or options because the reality of it is a disaster. If the lottery promises of riches can be maintained, then turnover grows. The same is true or worse in commodities. Most of that is now done as hedges. It all works out fine as long as the infinite horizons aren't approached. If they are approached as in LTCM's case, you have to have things remain stable for about 150 years before you can repay through the hedging scheme the losses incurred. Hedging is form of manipulation since it avoids risk. So is insurance of any kind. Both are like the house at Vegas. Why do people go in there?