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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (44690)	5/13/1999 2:59:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider-As I see it, the odds favour a downward bias over the month of May. My best guess is that we will rollover in here and take out yesterday's low print. That would then complete the A Wave of the overall downward sequence, to be followed by an up B failing below 81ish and finally a C down into the 60's....FLC for eg has likely already rolled over from 10.88 this am and as, i see it, will reprint 9.88 or a bit lower in the next few days (I tried to flip out at 11.06 but failed, so I'll hold it back down again)....I'm NOT saying we can't blast off to the upside here, just that the odds do not favour it at the moment. In my view, we did 5 waves up from 47 to 81ish and now we should back and fill and retrace into the 60's somewhere. My 2c, not cast in stone of course.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (44690)	5/13/1999 4:36:00 PM
From: still learning	Respond to of 95453

Re breakout: Without using TA, here's my 2c: There's a battle between two camps -- the Saudis/Opec and the Inst. buyers/Big Oil Shorts. Shell and the shorts want to t5alk the price down to cover. Institutional investors want to get in before the major run is behind us, but need a pullback to do so. The Saudis have an IPO to pump, and more importantly they need to show stability and compliance to keep OPEC in line. This is mostly a tussle over words, since the real evidence will be in the compliance #s and the drawdown of stocks, but in the interim psychology plays a big role. Slider said: "However; the buying I saw on key stocks yesterday and today - has told me that there are institutions who are still buyers here. The Saudi comments on wanting $20 Brent propped us right back up. I guess this is good and bad news; as we do not really have any major events here - like an OPEC meeting, earnings releases etc. to really support us strongly, or to boost us higher. We also do not yet have any fundamental news like rising rig counts, higher dayrates, a flow of new orders etc. to keep us moving , or supported here. The minute this news ends - I can see a slow bleed off here. But, it does seem that the Saudi's are doing a damn good PR job here and they seem to be serious about these prices. I just don't know how the other players like Quatar & Venezeula will hold the line." Until we get into June and the drawdown rate becomes clearer, there will be some bouncing around and sideways movement. Much of the initial rotation into cyclicals is already done, most likely. There are still buyers, but when will they move in with a vengeance? Probably when they fear the train is about to leave. Right now it appears there are no huge buyers and the remaining rotation is taking place via gradual accumulation.