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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joeys who wrote (3318)	5/13/1999 7:27:00 PM
From: stockycd	Respond to of 5482

Joeys, Yeah, we were up on high volume. Who knows? KLIC price movement is fickle at best. The next couple of months should see an upward bias though. Chris

To: Joeys who wrote (3318)	5/13/1999 11:57:00 PM
From: KC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

My philosophy about securities is to treat them just like your employees. Hire them, review their performances periodically - keep them if they're good or have some potential - let them go when there are signals. At the moment, I choose to let it go for: - I thought that it could reproduce 97 performance again in earlier this year but it couldn't - so out the window with "cyclic theory". - I asked myself why I want to keep invest while the ceo want to sell or he thought it might pop in 10 years. - Why go through the trouble to move the main product oversea just to gain 10% of margin ? Is it really worthy ? Simply speaking, wire bonder price is 80-100 K each. Profit margin is about 40% respectively. So 10% extra in profit is just merely additional $4,000 max. per each machine. It means they have to sell 5000 machines to recoup the investment. It will take about 4 good years to sell that many in the golden day. Some of the new players join this market are threaten to break the 70 K price barrier they are might even doing it now or has been. I expected to see the newly design 8028 at Semicon Singapore last week but it wasn't there. If they plan to mass produce this baby soon in here, when is the debut ? - Per their annual report, package material group contributed the largest profit for last year. This means profit from selling consumable parts: bonding tools, wire, dicing blade is more than from selling machine. It also means the end-user prefer to keep using their current machines and buy the consumable goods. - Why spreadout your activities widely and not focusing on what you could or have done well ? Polymer material, substrate material, flip chip sub contractor... are these your expertise ? How will you compete with players have dominated the market for years ? - Lastly, why try to imitate the AMAT model while everybody the semiconductor industry knows that front-end and back-end are totally two different worlds in all aspects. Maybe, there might be some hope some where that I don't know of but I don't hire and keep one for hope ! Good luck to all !