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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Friesen who wrote (1516)	5/13/1999 6:47:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Technically speaking, both the 10 yr. and the 30 yr. have to rise above 6% and stay above it for a quarter or so before one can confidently say that the downtrend has been broken. I don't trust the Utilities as a barometer for future interest rate direction because the yields are getting lame, some bellweather utilities are trading at very high multiples due to speculative bets being places on the current consolidation frenzy, and the stocks may soon cut payouts further regardless of the direction of interest rates should a few blue chip utilities be rewarded with ever higher multiples as their payout rates are cut and cash is conserved for corporate expansion, which is a practice that wall street is high on.

To: Michael Friesen who wrote (1516)	5/14/1999 1:13:00 AM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

re: H&S top Do you mean a short-term top in bond yield, or a long term top in bond price? Tom

To: Michael Friesen who wrote (1516)	5/14/1999 10:27:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

any H&S was busted a while ago. I don't look at patterns that much. The technical tools I use are more stochastics, Bollinger bands, fibonacci retracements and some cyclical work a friend does. But my biggest technical tool is stomach acid. After twenty years I tend to go a lot by gut feel from just observation. I've absorbed a lot of technical tools over the year and I'll often recognize something without even being conscious of it. So 'feel' is my biggest technical indicator.