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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (22691)	5/13/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

JFDowd - I have my views, but I try to subdue them when trading. I reserve them for my investment, not trading decisions. Obviously, I'm a MSFT bull, otherwise I'd have sold at 95 - because it was clear to me (and many traders), that for the intermediate term, MSFT was headed down. Many did sell (wasn't Lindysmth(?)one who sold most of his/her MSFT for QCOM?). I didn't want to take the cap gains hit - and I have other ways of protecting my MSFT nut from a downside... however the point is, if I thought the game was over for MSFT, I'd have sold, period. I am very bullish over the next 1-2 years. Unbelievble as it may seem from today's dark perspective, I look for some $140 by April of 2000. However, my views don't matter. As a trader, I try to guage the market sentiment. I interact with other traders, investors, I read and watch analysts, I try to get a feel for what is important in moving a stock SHORT TERM. The impression I have, is that these recent initiatives are not revenue generators in any definable way. There seems to be general consensus that Office 2000 revenues will be a dud. Some even claim that Win 2000 will be less than MSFT's expectations (mind you, I find this incredible, as I see Win 2000 as absolutely GIGANTIC). But short term, until proven otherwise, perceptions are what matter. And in that light, MSFT has not come up with anything "exciting". One additional thing. The contretemps with Greg Maffei awhile back seriously hurt investor/trader confidence. I tried to make that point on this board, but I was shouted down. This may seem ridiculous, but here is the reasoning... the perception was that Maffei wanted out of his position. That was disturbing to many, because Maffei was a beacon of safety - a guy who always talked things down, but delivered outstanding numbers. Now he wants to leave... why? Maybe he knows the numbers going forward will not be that good. He wants to leave at the top of the game. You can laugh about this, but I've talked to several people who voiced this suspicion. I've even seen echos of it in commentary that maybe this time we should believe all the MSFT talk about slowdown. Somebody even posted an article to that effect from some knucklehead from TheStreet.com. Bottom line, MSFT needs to announce something extremely dramatic, or there must be some very good news on the DOJ battle front. Otherwise, dead money will get deader(like that word<g>). Morgan