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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (13794)	5/13/1999 10:55:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Casaubon, I honestly don't believe the FED is going to raise rates but then again all they really have to do is let the markets know that they are changing their bias towards tightening. When you combine that with Rubin's departure any break could indeed be swift. Regarding the markets today with the overall patterns for the indexes and stocks of the major players so close to breaking their recent consolidation patterns - today's weakness in the NAZ and trannies was very disturbing. Take a look at today's action in INTC, QWST, LVLT, MSFT, AMZN, AOL, YHOO, and PCLN just to name a few. All of these stocks closed at their lows of the days. Plus look at the gaps in AT&T, IBM, CSCO all unfilled. Take a look at the weekly chart for the VIX which has set itself up perfectly for a break of a pattern that has developed for many months. Let me say finish by saying that the intermediate term and longer term trends for some of these issues are still BULLISH. While in other issues such as the nutz the damage has been more pronounced. However, when I consider the news tomorrow plus the FOMC meeting next week in the context of what happened today - extreme caution is the way to play it here. Even though those trends are still bullish any bad news from the FED could change that in one or two trading sessions. If we can make it through next Tuesday without a hitch I will become a little less paranoid. Right now the risk to reward ratio doesn't argue well for the bullish side of things. Besides waiting until Tuesday will only mean that you're going to be a little late to the party. I can live with that. Regards, SO