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Technology Stocks : JMAR Technologies(JMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: timwa who wrote (7964)	5/14/1999 4:15:00 AM
From: Falstaff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9695

An interesting question. Whatever indeed? It seems to me that I stated some time ago that JMAR's biggest problem is credibility. This seems to have been demonstrated again in several ways recently. For example, does Martinez really expect us to believe that when he mentioned sales approaching $34M for 1999 in March, that he didn't already know that the first quarter was not going to support that number? What happened to the Major Major announcement? Where is the press release on the biomedical stepper? Where are the BriteLight orders that were supposed to happen by the end of the year? Why was BriteLight going to be a roar in the industry, but now is barely a whisper? JMAR Semiconductor is nothing like what JMAR started out to do (Cal-ASIC) and, while it was excellent maneuvering to turn this around, Cal-ASIC was a complete failure of the original product idea and business plan. LightKnife wasn't recoverable: it was a complete dud. So, it seems to me that I am justified every time a throw a salt lick over my shoulder when listening to the latest Martinez drone. Then there is this board. Some of us have voiced moderate optimism based on recent announcements and hope it means what it could mean. However, we also point out the reality of the situation that does not seem to be able to permeate the logic tight compartments of the brains of the cheerleaders. JMAR is not the only producer of X-Ray point sources: watch for competition. JMAR is not politically active in the promotion of X-ray, nor are they politically powerful: watch for industrial inertia to wipe it all away by moving with another technology. The market size isn't really $4.5B, and XRL won't happen until later than everyone thinks. Other X-ray applications are possible, but JMAR has no marketing function to address this. JMAR Precision Systems is not keeping up with the market place: look for poor financials. JMAR is not selling BriteLights like they planned: look for lowered expectations (and, by the way, why isn't this generating all the excitement JMAR said it would?). We see all of these come about, then the cheerleaders cling to one promising, but not very important, article that is making the rounds in some reasonably fashionable investment pubs, and, as one poster put it, the magic formula: fireworks show this year + 1. Now, if I could look back and see where JMAR had said in 1995 "we believe we will have the laser pump and copper tape chamber ready for demonstration in late 1998 to early 1999", that would be different. If I could see a 1997 plan that said "we will have BriteLight ready for OEM demonstration in 1998 and expect to enter into significant partnerships with this laser in 1999 and 2000", that would be different. In general words, if I could see historical statements by JMAR that have come about approximately like they said they would, it would be very different. We could expect more statements that would stop the mouths of speculation about when BriteLight will do this, or when PXS will do that. We would just get out the timeline already published by JMAR and see if they are tracking. This is not the case. The simple fact of these matters that I perceive, the fact that explains the persistent negativity of many that is so puzzling to the Polyannas on board, is just this: JMAR lies. I think others, like Gooch, have exactly the same perception but more tact than to just come out and accuse JMAR management of being not only incompetent, but untrustworthy in more fundamental ways. I will say it: Martinez's pants are on fire, and have been for some time from the tales I hear told on this board. As for this board: Another fact that I perceive is that many on this board swallow the lies, or go beyond that to excuse the lies, or go even farther and help promulgate the deceit by suggesting that they aren't really lies and management isn't really responsible for being unable to say how things are, let alone how they will be. But, that is exactly the job of management: to control the future outcome based on clear understanding of the current situation and how to navigate the distance in between. I think JMAR may be a very good investment. However, I have to look really hard to see it, and I have to forgive a great deal to keep my hope that I am not just being duped. Most of the time, I feel like a sucker, and I don't have to review a very long history to understand why. I think it would be very educational if someone like Gooch, who has been around and seems to remember much of the bungling, fumbling and clumsy attempts to excuse them, would put together a brief "History of JMAR 'Forward looking Statements'". I know I would love the perspective it would provide. Some of you have years of these lies and, as one put it in a recent post, "dissapointment" to overcome. I am surprised you are still here. I guess that is one of the lessons I am learning about "investing": patience and a very forgiving attitude when it comes to tolerating misrepresentation from the people you trust to explain why you should own a piece of their party. It is a very counter-intuitive lesson.