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Technology Stocks : Hutchinson Technology, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Z Analyzer who wrote (1256)5/22/1999 9:21:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1487
 
It's been interesting to read you and Marconi. I've been gone for 2 weeks and little seems to have happened to stir the water. The market has fluctuated.

I agree with you both and your thoughts are not so far off mine, but you are always the optimist when it comes to Hutch. Anyway, for what it's worth I'll throw in that I also believe Hutch looks good in the low 20's.

Now, these earnings you suggest are interesting. "Massive" over bookings when supplies were tight. Interesting that these over bookings also provided a nice earnings surprise at a time when they had their secondary offering. Does that suggest that the move to $50 was sort of brought on through a miss understanding by the market?

For all those who think this stock is a $100 value, just look at this discussion. They can't maintain sequential earnings growth and no predictability. I think you need to set your sights on more realistic figures and that will still provide very respectable returns from an investment in the 20's.

Anyway, Hutch had a big lay off and there was a suggestion that events could be solved as quickly as they started. Well... Any thoughts on whether things have been resolved? How long will it take for bookings to regain reality now those customers have reliable supply?

Regards,
Mark

PS You say it's not possible to compare Hutch today with last year and I agree. Still, I think that storage companies will have some complications in forecasting demand as we go into and out of y2k. Also, stocks in general will have some emotional mood swings as investors prepare for corrections. I would think any stock pushing extreme highs would be vulnerable without a great story to back up the valuation. That is not a problem for Hutch in the 20's, but I would worry in the 40's.