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To: blue_lotus who wrote (3191)	5/14/1999 2:01:00 AM
From: ShortyBear	Respond to of 7772

Yes, I think your numbers also agree that the stock may be oversold if the growth rate declines as it appears to be doing THIS quarter. On the other hand, the price could be okay (and even rise) if growth will only continue for a couple years at LAST quarter's 40-50% rate. I also think it is interesting to project the auction count that results if the growth continues at LAST quarter's rate. In not too many years, there needs to be an auction running everyday for many of the people in the USA. (Well, I suppose some people might say that everybody has something that they want to sell every day of the year, and nothing better to do than sell it on Ebay). >>But of course no one cares about fundamentals because they don't intend to hold on for even an year. They want a quick buck and feel that on a down turn they can all easily bail out I'm not so sure I agree with this. Yes, there are lots of people who are able to capitalize (or gamble on) short term moves, but the overall price direction is probably based on mathematical projections like your own. Some people have observed that they think this stock is "crazy". Crazy like a fox, maybe. The test will be when the growth dries up, and road runner realizes that he's run off a cliff. If the stock keeps climbing then, I guess irrationality must be considered as a possible explanation. For some reason, I just don't think that will happen. That time may be sooner than we think. There have been recent news items about other internet services that are topping out on their growth rates recently. This may be one reason that Amazon has lost almost 1/3 of its value recently. It may be that the best short opportunity for this particular stock is about 7/28 if it maintains a good price until then. The idea is that next quarter will probably see even lower growth than this one, plus there is a good chance of a big market dip in late summer (if history repeats itself). Until then, some individuals may deem it safe to stay long over many periods of time (tomorrow is not necessarily one of those periods).