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Biotech / Medical : Alliance Pharmaceutical -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (354)	5/14/1999 9:31:00 AM
From: Joinvestor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 548

See my post number 335. The question still stands. IMHO, I think that we are in trouble here. Even if they sell 10 million shares at $3-$4 that only gets them an additional 2-3 qtrs of working capital. Assuming they are able to do that successfully, If they do not bring one of these products to market is less than a year we are out of business. If the offering is not successful, we are out of business a lot sooner than that! I would welcome and appreciate any constructive comments to the contrary. JO

To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (354)	5/20/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: semi_infinite	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 548

Dr. John and thread, ALLP is doing a secondary and a broker at Cruttenden called me to see if I was interested. It's priced around $2.50 and it will start trading next Tuesday. The allocations are 9 Million shares to institutions, 1M to individuals and 2M over-allotment. I am typically very skeptical of secondaries based on experience and would normally sell into one instead of buying. The business reason given that ALLP management wants to go it alone (at least long enough into phase III to gain leverage from interested parties) seems plausible. However, that would only be plausible if management thinks that there is a high probability of success and they feel that JNJ is not being equitable on partnering terms. So the key questions for the near-term are: (1) what's the probability that Oxygent will become commercial? (2) if successful, how big is the market and how much of that market will be Oxygent. I would appreciate your thoughts. Thanks.