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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (8374)	5/14/1999 11:06:00 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Respond to of 17770

Obviously, the most important thing is missing in this WP article, that is the tight connection between the impeachment process and the Kosovo war!! In short, I see it this way: if no compromise is reached with the Chinese on some UN/NATO peace-enforcing action in Kosovo then I suspect the US will launch a hostile ground intervention --which will bring the following consequences: # the break-up of the Green/Socialist coalition in Germany; # the political decline of the French gauche plurielle and a simultanous strenghtening of the French (far-)right; # a lethal blow to Milosevic's regime; # the topple-down of Yeltsin by a hardliners coalition; # a power shift between moderate Ibrahim Rugova and the KLA leadership. So, I think that the ball is by the Chinese's foot... If they get what they want in exchange for their UNSC vote in favor of a UN/NATO settlement then I suspect Yeltsin will stay in the Kremlin. Otherwise, NATO's storming of Kosovo will look like Russia's total fiasco and Russians hardliners will say ''enough is enough!'' and will unplug Russia's liberalization, nuclear cooperation, US-friendly foreign policy, etc... My 2 cents, Gustave.