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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (44748)	5/14/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<< agreed output cuts could "remove over 100 million barrels" from atlantic basin storage by the fourth quarter of this year. >> ...not much more needs to be said. Yamanni, turning Bullish is NOT to be ignored. Just as when he was sounding the ''cheat warning'' - taking profits was prudent - as we sold off & retraced/paused a bit; now his turn to the bullish side - should equally not be ignored. There are rumblings of substantial pent up activity. June 10-15th - whenever OPEC reports May compliance numbers could be a rocket catalyst... or it could be ''the'' hammer falling to a retracement to OSX 63-68... I think the Street is placing it's ''stock'' bets on solid OPEC compliance; if you aren't ''in'' somewhere in Oilpatch land; be that the Oil Majors, the integrateds, Independant E&P's, or the OSX stocks; the strong possibility to ''miss'' a major move exists. I can not ignore the move in stocks like BHI which is a great ''early warning'' stock; as BHI is an initial recovery stage fav' of the street. Crude Oil Traders may play the sell prior to the API/EIA and OPEC announcment game; but I do not think we will see the type of selling I thought we may here... Again; I'm hedging my bets buy buying value in the OSX and overweighting to E&P's ... this is a ''turning point'' coming in June - the ball is in OPEC's court... There is a good possibility that projects are on ''hold'' pending another report on OPEC compliance; a positive OPEC report could be met with a very positive - double whammy - of these orders getting the ''green light'' here accross the Oilpatch board ... We potentially could get a run to 100 off of a combo of Industry projects going forward and good OPEC compliance.... I could see June to Sept run from 70 to 100 real easy if we get any ''project/activity'' news along with a good June report on OPEC. Big Bull; I ''smell it''.... something's cookin in the Oilpatch kitchen & it's smelling good... too early to tell what the entre' will be - but it sure smells good from here... GaryB; never, never, ever - anything wrong with taking profits; but - holding only MAVK here ? No integrated oils, or stable E&P's as a hedge on not missing a move here ? I humbly suggest MRO, UPR, OEI here at least.... MRO expecialy at $28ish if you can catch it...maybe UPR on a dip, OEI looks reasonable here...nothing risky, but you have to have some upside left in the portfolio imho... RIG as well - if it ''aint'' blowing off here - how can you not have ''some'' RIG here ? ..... I could see a 30-40-50% trim of holdings perhaps, but only MAVK ? (maybe you're holdin a boatload of MAVK ? ). ...and did you sell ''all'' of your FLC ? ...say it aint so Joe ! I bought some HMAR today at this present ''option'' price on their survivability .... got the bounce once before... Prepared to lose it all, or make a 4-5 bagger ultimately; small position - maybe pay for the trip to the RIG party with my profit .... be able to fly 1st Class - allways hard to rationalize not going coach when I'm paying my own way....... I also started a decent position again in HLX. Sold it for a nice move earlier. Back in at $5 & a tic' here this a.m..... will follow it down; they aren't going under... have their problems for sure; but Double Hull tanker business; old fleets Globaly,good joint venture in China, lots of Government & commercial ship building; has a backlog to last all year+.... looks real, real cheap on an asset basis on this 40% retracement from $7 here. Bought a decent $ chunk today.... This was a damn $40 stock not too long ago ....$12 mere months ago.... like the risk vs. reward odds here again at $5 - especially just off $7 days ago ! Someone stop me; I'm about to go HUGE on HLX ! If this goes back to $4 - I'm backing up the Brinks Truck.... just few other stocks offering this type of discount on net asset value, upside potential with moderate downside risk; also a good 50% nearterm term trade possibility on any OSX move...