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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (14010)	5/14/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

Monty Lenard: Hey buddy, long time no post...<g> Well, I still think the Indices are worth the reads, you just "got" to know how to read them AND how not to read them...<g> You got to look under the lid... Probably the very same money that carried it down bought enough to stop a panic sell off because they wanted the dipsters money....they did not want them running away...give them some hope so they keep buying the dips. Very astute... By the way...the Captain was my first ally regarding the manipulation theme, when I first began to post on SI last year. Regards, LG

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (14010)	5/14/1999 9:17:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Monty, I have more amo for your theory and Rubin departure. Just take a close look to the money flow during the last 2 weeks. Rubin informed the President about two weeks ago about his final decision to resign. I assume the Pres. told Rubin to be careful in handling the stock market beforehand <GGG> aside was he not with GS by accident?/ How about selling short only to cover just before his resignation and push the market up to relative safe levels?? Also this may explain the divergences in index and equity put/call ratio. Aside do we not have a complete "transparent stock market" <GGG> BWDIK Haim

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (14010)	5/15/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Monty; LOL..thanx..I do some odd stuff with numbers I find some of it takes me no where..but once in a while I do find anomalies, or divergence or I make connection's to other happenings that the news pundits don't or wont point at. --------------------- Lots of times what I do is not thought out , or organized just a dumping of all the pieces of a puzzle on a table looking for a Frame of some sort. Out in left field type searching, it's not always productive, however at times it can be. --------------------- More recently I took the 3 mo avg volume X the price to see how much money changes hands daily on the NDX, ( ball park ) and which ones trade the Most $, also sorted that into another group and divided the avg $ by the market cap of the stock to see if I could find the $ exchange by size , that didn't add up to much except it put CMGI AMZN NETA, as very active stocks compared to their market cap ( speculative or day traded more than most others compared to their size ) --------------------- All in all ( ball park ) the NDX trades 10.6 Billion dollars daily , ( retail ) and just the spread ( not including the volatility ) puts 70.4 Million $ a day into the pockets of the market makers . ---------------------- The turn over rate of all the shares out seems to be about 148% per year ( so much for long term investors <G> ) ( I divided the volume by half on all the above except the spread , as the Naz counts volume 2twice as it goes from Retail to MM then Retail , and the NYSE just counts from retail to retail. -------------------------- At the top of the traded dollars are, MSFT INTC DELL CSCO YHOO AMZN WCOM SUNW CMGI, in that order 11.51% , 8.47% , 8.27% 7.18% 5.55% 4.82% 4.64% 4.45% 4.24% which means 9 stocks make up about 60% of the $ traded, out of the 100 in the NDX, So if you want to call the NDX them 9 are the players to watch. While the Index itself has to respond short term to MSFT INTC CSCO WCOM & DELL in that order because of it's weighting 16.86% 7.36% 6.50% 6.42% 3.85%, it can move one way, when over all money flow is going the other. Just by a big move in MSFT, which is something to watch for . I need to make up another spread sheet to track the main money flow, vs the index , as it's my idea when you find a difference here you can often get in front of the index curve. While YHOO AMZN SUNW CMGI, don't directly effect the index ( in real time ) near as much as the others, watching them along with the others can give a picture of strong money flow, in one direction or another before ( AT TIMES ) "before" it reflects it self in the index. ------------------------- So that secret is now in the public domain, but I doubt many people will do what it takes to exploit it. ----------------- One of my Daughters is visiting and I've put the market on the back burner till Tuesday, I don't get to see her often and trading will have to take a back seat. ------------------- If You have time will you update me on the DMAs 10 , 20, 200 5/12 , 13 , & 14th ? Thanx Jim