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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (14027)	5/14/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 99985

I couldn't agree more about real stuff, however, I'll qualify it with real important stuff. And I just don't see the importance of gold, at least not the way it has been used historically. Now, if you told me gold was going to be used on printed circuit boards for a 10X enhancement in processing speed, or that a new energy efficient solar collecor required a thin film of AU, which would cut the worlds oil dependence in half, than I would have reason to believe gold was "real stuff". Until then, it just makes cool jewelry. Obviously, JMO. Drugs are real stuff because they really help people live better and possibly more importantly (from a profit standpoint at least) longer. Drugs cannot easily be replaced with a substitute and so the "rarity" factor is strong. Drug discovery is, and has been for 10 years, undergoing a revolution. This trend will accelerate for at least a generation. Oil will probably rise steeply over some period in time, but it could be 20 to 50 years in the future. It will probably trade in a wide band ($15 to $30?) for quite some time. It is very possible science will make oil obsolete before oil breaks out of that band. Of course, good TA and FA will allow you to trade that band until then. Oil came from the dinosaur (maybe) and will go that way too.

To: bobby beara who wrote (14027)	5/15/1999 1:22:00 PM
From: GTC Trader	Respond to of 99985

Gold -- << People ... have been incredibly bearish on gold, everybody is selling it and say it's not relevant anymore >> Deflation? Inflation? What gives? With Y2K approaching and gold coin sales strong and growing, POG and XAU should shoot up. If the equities market crashes, $ should rush into gold and POG and XAU should shoot up. Several analysts are saying that 2/3 of the world is in a deflation and the U.S. is headed there soon. Buy gold. Others say deflation will bring gold down with all other commodities. Now everyone is worried about inflation, yet gold hardly bounced. Central banks seem to be forcing POG down through real or threatened (or feigned?) gold sales. Could England's move have been designed to manipulate the market by keeping POG down and encouraging more sales from individual investors? They PLAN to sell gold within the next year, but if everyone else sells first and POG drops to $200, MAYBE England will decide to be a buyer instead. Last week, I was just starting to take some profits in gold stocks when England cut me off at the knees and they dropped 20 - 30 %. Pardon me for being grumpy. Any words of consolation? Any thoughts as to the short-, mid-, and long-term direction of our shiny friend? Maybe I should just forget about POG, XAU, and gold, and just short AMZN. I missed the ride up. Might as well enjoy the ride down! Any comments would be appreciated. Thank you, my hairy friend. HB