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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (14029)	5/15/1999 7:37:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

MACD UPDATE This update reviews the intermediate market trend (2-6) weeks based on MACD indicators. TYX (30 year long bond) - Strongly up RUT - Up HFX - Close but not quite a down trend yet INDU - Just turned to a down trend XAU - Strong crossover to a down trend SPX - Touched a positive crossover point and promptly headed down COMPX - same as SPX OEX - Continues down IIX - down for week 5 DOT - down for week 6 So we have a down intermediate trend establishing itself in most indices. This could just be sideways movement for a protracted period of time. However, subjectively my indicators do not support that position as the highest probability. More likely is a grinding rotation with a downward bias. With XAU down fairly strongly, it appears that inflation is not the issue in the near term. With TYX moving higher, interest rates are the issue at hand. I am sure that everyone recognizes that situation. Why then is RUT still headed up, albeit at a lower pace? As I have said before the stocks in RUT are more sensitive to economic activity than interest rates at the margin. The RUT stocks in general can't get the premier lending rates or securitize debt like the S&P 100 / 500 stocks. At the margin, somewhat higher rates to pay for higher economic activity benefits the smaller stocks. This move by smaller stocks is typically an indication that it is late in the day for a market move. This suggests that the upmove from OCT. 8 is winding down. Perhaps also the longer term moves form 1990 and 1982. Only time will tell.