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Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WTSherman who wrote (6811)	5/15/1999 8:28:00 AM
From: SlateColt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

"But, it seems to me that a company with a market cap of $600M, no revenues, little cash and no customers(yet) " Just goes to show how impressive their technology is doesn't it? From the outside, I'd be skeptical too. That's why the stock price hasn't appreciated any higher. Consider Wave a "diamond in the rough." But, if you take the time to research the company and their prospects, you'll undoubtedly come to the same conclusion we love-festers have. And please share any conclusions, positive or negative, you ascertain. I'd like to think this board is interested in both. Also, realize that Wave is transitioning from a total R&D effort to full production and service mode. Once that transformation is complete, customers and revenue will follow. That's what we're all waiting for, to be able to crunch some numbers. At this point, we don't know how many customers they'll get and how much they'll spend. WinTV tuner cards will be launched in June and PCFree in July (USB dongle and PC inclusion later this year.) Once the revenue starts flowing, we'll be able to project how much a customer is worth. That is, of course, if Wave shares the numbers with the individual investor. ---Slate

To: WTSherman who wrote (6811)	5/15/1999 12:11:00 PM
From: cm	Respond to of 11417

Not Exactly A Love-In... One of the beauties of this thread is that, despite some accounts, it's a pretty darned bright group. And doubts are entertained here. I know, because I have brought some on occasions... due to low blood sugar or just my natural Calvinist bent. There IS a very clear market for what WAVX has to offer. In the context of concerns about credit-card fraud and privacy and information in-security in a networked environment--I offer you VerSecure and Embassy. In the context of concerns about intellectual property and secure content distribution as well as consumer demands for "try before you buy" etc.--I submit Embassy and the WaveMeter. In the context of broadcasters' interests in finding new sources of revenue through the deployment of digital television/multicasting--let's talk about inTelecast and The Fantastic Corporation. Against a backdrop of frustrated advertisers who ARE CRAVING a way to precisely measure the effectiveness of online advertising--again, let's talk WaveMeter. Regarding every mother with a dewberry cobbler recipe, every musician without a major label's backing, every frustrated poet or amateur pornographer--there's MyPublish. In the context of margin-starved PC OEMs who are desperately seeking alternative revenue sources--well, you get the point. As to what deal or another will be the thing that pushes WAVX above a billion-dollar market cap. I don't know. A major PC OEM--like Dell--jumps on the bandwagon? I mean, NEC and HP have already endorsed it. But, we haven't seen deployment yet. AOL announces that WAVX technology will be in its Philips STBs? The Artist announces that his next album will be entirely Wave-enabled? As to the no revenues, little cash and no customers. Yup, to all three. Well, we do have $23 million in a private placement--which I guess you could call cash. That's what makes this a high-risk investment. I don't think anybody here has forgotten that. Now, shifting gears for a moment. On the RB thread last night there was a post from E3 all about the CDs that will come bundled with the HAUP deployment in June. Just wanted to point out something that we all know, but remains interesting: Sony is behind the Psygnosis label. AND Mattel is behind The Learning Company. Further, there was some speculation on RB that WAVX will be offering some kind of "jukebox" product. There was no clarification beyond that. Just an intriguing bit. Best Regards, c m

To: WTSherman who wrote (6811)	5/15/1999 12:23:00 PM
From: SDR-SI	Respond to of 11417

Further to your post, (and to Slate Colt's comments) in which you have queried: "What am I missing here? Everyone on this board seems to think that this is a lock..." Not everyone thinks this is "a lock". I think that many people look at this as an "all or nothing" investment - either the concept is going to "go" and the investment will be quite well rewarded, or the concept is going to "fall by the wayside" and become a nice idea which the world relegates to being relatively worthless, with little likelihood for a result in between the two. The rational investor must constantly amass information on this, as well as other, investments to determine the range of tradeoffs between investment, time, and return and to develop his own evaluation of the probability for each of his range of possible outcomes, and to then allocate his investment resources. Apparently for many, as time has gone on and they have looked at the concept, and as one views the response of technology leaders (both corporate and individual) to the concept, and as one views the first steps of implementation and deployment, and as one looks at the credibility of those who are lining up to implement and deploy, some people have begun to see their evaluation of the probability of a successful "go" to be steadily increasing and the probability of a "fall by the wayside" to be steadily decreasing. Those that do not would tend to move on to other areas and abandon other than an occasional lookback at Wave. It is therefore natural that those that post on the WAVX boards are more likely to be those that have studied the concepts, done the DD and decided that the probability of success, coupled to the potential rewards, has produced a positive internal cost-benefit evaluation. Further, the daily movement of industry information clearly indicates a positive trend toward increasing the probability of success. Further, many can see that as time has gone on, the important and necessary negative comment is becoming more and more related to negativity related to the process of stock price growth, rather than to technical comment on the concept of the system itself. Thus, the type of comment (shorters, spammers, etc.) in itself, has made many increase their internal evaluation of the probability of success. Many of us are hungry for well-reasoned, negative technical or business-model comment which would be of great value in our continuing quests to re-evaluate and second-guess ourselves, but little seems to be forthcoming. The result of all of the above is that it tends to attract and retain the more positive outlook posters. Unfortunately it also retains a few unabashed, non-informational hypesters who hope to be able claim "inside" knowledge by hyping the clearly-expected in a way that when the inevitable events happen, they can claim credibility for themselves; but the nature of their language makes them easy to spot and makes it easy to discount their unnecessary and unprincipled hype. This is all a too-long way of saying that many would recommend that you not concentrate on our positions as they exist today, but invest in doing some extensive DD, review the company and its ever-increasing list of partners and cooperators, review the comments of acknowledged industry prognosticators, review the extensive commentary on SI and RB over the last couple of years, and then make your own evaluation of the cost, benefit, risk and probability-of-success relationships. I would hope that after doing so, you would make the results of your analysis, whether positive or negative, known to the rest of the WAVX investors, analysers and watchers on these boards. Sorry for the length of post. Steve

To: WTSherman who wrote (6811)	5/15/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: SDR-SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

WTS: At the risk of being rightfully accused of overkill: In addition to the reasoned response posts of Slate Colt and cm, and in addition to the philosophical B.S. of my answer to you, a good starting point to determine if the hopes of today will be turning into deployment and $$ for tomorrow, might be to take a look at the descriptions on RB of various attended at the E3 convention to their WAVX observations. They start at ragingbull.com and, up to this minute, span 108 posts, some on other items, but all-in-all a not over-powering read-through. Granted they are all from persons with a pre-observation propensity toward WAVX; but ignore their subjective comments and just look at the companies in the E3 sphere who are lining up with WAVX and look at the reporting of comments by WAVX management. Then make your own judgement as to the general direction in which things are proceeding. Then remember that games and gaming are but one small area in which the WAVE/EMBASSY system and concept are applicable, and just one small area in which development and deployment are being evidenced on a daily basis. Then make your own evaluation as to whether this investment "fits" for you. For some people it doesn't fit now. For some it won't until a later time in history. For some it never will. One cannot be critical of what "fits" for others. Steve P.S. I think most WAVE holders agree with your comment that deployment and acceptance are necessary before major moves in stock price; but it DOES look (at least to me) like things are snow-balling in that direction, rather than in the opposite direction.