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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (1645)5/15/1999 5:15:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1722
 
Manufacturing Thriving Even as Employment Falls

By MICHAEL M. WEINSTEIN -- May 15, 1999

When financial crisis swept through Asia,
Brazil and Russia last year, American
industry prepared to duck. With goods
accounting for over 70 percent of exports,
manufacturers were sure to take a hit.

And sure enough, they did. Manufacturing
exports, as estimated by the National
Association of Purchasing Management, fell
for 14 consecutive months starting in the fall of
1997. Employment in manufacturing,
meanwhile, fell by 400,000 last year, and the
association's widely publicized measure of
manufacturing production indicated steady
declines throughout 1998.

But the negative arithmetic misses the point,
says Jerry Jasinowski, president of the National
Association of Manufacturers, the industry's
largest trade group.

"The best estimates show that manufacturing
survived the Asia crisis just fine," Jasinowski
said. "In fact, it is thriving."

He backs his assertion with government
statistics different from those compiled by the
purchasing managers. His data show that
production, which certainly stumbled for a
while, has now recovered and is again rising at
a brisk pace.

Another sign of manufacturing's revival came
Friday, when the Federal Reserve reported that
industrial production rose 0.6 percent in April,
the strongest gain since August.

Industrial employment is continuing to fall, but
that trend actually reflects the sector's enduring
strength -- fast-paced innovation that drives up
productivity, allowing manufacturers to churn
out more automobiles, refrigerators and
computers with fewer workers.

Some of the productivity gains can be traced to
"hard technology" innovations embedded in
high-speed data processing systems and
computer-driven machinery. But other gains
are driven by "soft technology" innovations,
which alter the way people, equipment and
materials are organized and managed.

According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at
RFA, an economic consulting firm based in
West Chester, Pa., growth in production
peaked in November 1997 when it was
advancing by more than 7 percent a year.

Once Asian economies collapsed,
manufacturing slowed, but never actually fell.
Now that exports have stabilized, the vigorous
domestic economy is pulling demand for
manufactured goods back up. According to
government estimates, production rose more
than 4 percent last year, about the same rate of
growth as in the economy at large.

"The trade shock merely brought
manufacturing down from its giddy pace
before Asia collapsed to the pace of other
sectors of the economy," Zandi said.

That raises the question of how manufacturing
kept pace with services, which suffered little
shock from Asia. Chalk the neat trick up to the
Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates last
year as an insurance policy to keep the
American economy upright. Lower interest
rates made housing, autos and other goods that
Americans buy on credit cheaper.

According to government estimates, the
production of durables -- furniture, industrial
machinery computer equipment, automobiles
and the like -- rose over 5 percent from the end
of 1997 to the end of 1998. But the production
of nondurable goods like tobacco products,
textiles and apparel fell almost 1 percent during
the same period.

Economic collapse abroad hit particularly hard
at commodities. As Asia bought less oil, steel
and other basic goods, their prices fell to
punishing levels, forcing cutbacks. That was a
boon for consumers, but a blow to American
producers.

Yet American industry has proved remarkably
resilient. A striking feature of the last several
decades is that the share of manufacturing in
the overall economy has remained rock steady.
"It may appear to the public that we are
becoming a nation of hamburger flippers," said
Ed McKelvey, an economist with Goldman,
Sachs, "but the simple fact is that
manufacturers are holding their own."

Friday's report by the Federal Reserve on
production showed that manufacturing
advanced 0.6 percent during April after rising a
revised 0.4 percent in March. Mining output
increased 0.1 percent; output of utilities' rose
0.7 percent. Capacity use, meanwhile,
remained low, at 80.6 percent, compared with
80.4 percent in March.

Manufacturing accounts for about 20 percent
of total production today, and about 20 percent
for the last three decades. What has fallen is
the share of the nation's labor force working in
manufacturing -- from about 35 percent in
1947, to about 18.5 percent in 1988 and about
15 percent today.

The productivity record in manufacturing in
recent years has been striking. It has been
growing about 4 percent a year since 1995,
about twice the rate of productivity growth in
the overall economy. In the first quarter of this
year, manufacturing productivity advanced at a
5.8 percent rate.

Professor Paul Swamidass of Auburn
University says he thinks he knows why. In a
1997 survey of more than 1,000 factories
sponsored by the manufacturers' association
and the National Science Foundation, he found
that about 85 percent of the companies
involved had adopted computer-aided design
technologies that permit them to introduce new
products more quickly.

About 70 percent had adopted computer-run
machines. More than 60 percent of the plants
had built computer networks linking customers
to the plant and linking machinery within the
plant. And at least 25 percent of the factories
used robots for welding and other repetitive
tasks.

One of the newest innovations -- an
organizational concept known as cells, which
uses small teams of workers to make an entire
product rather than passing unfinished product
from department to department, each with its
own crew of workers -- is spreading fast. The
survey showed it had been adopted by more
than 50 percent of the companies.

John Heggestad, director of operations at Mine
Safety Appliances,a Pittsburgh company that
makes safety equipment, including gas masks
and other breathing devices, said that
"manufacturing cells have allowed us to cut
paperwork, transportation and inspections."

Under the new system, a worker inspects
aluminum forgings brought onto the factory
floor, and, using machines placed nearby, does
whatever milling, drilling and threading is
needed. Under the old system, the aluminum
would have been brought to a receiving area
by one worker, logged in by another, inspected
by a third, then transported to different areas
of the factory floor for milling, drilling,
threading and further assembly.

"By moving to manufacturing cells," he said,
"we doubled revenues per worker over the
past 10 or so years."

Peter Probst, manufacturing engineer at the
Falk Corp. in Auburn, Ala., tells a similar
story. Falk makes coupling devices that
connect motors to equipment.

Under its old system, the assembly of a new
coupler would start at one end of the factory
floor and finish at the other. Now machines are
arranged in clusters, sometimes run by a single
worker who completes all the steps himself.
The process eliminates the need to have
unfinished parts sitting around in various
stages; Falk has reduced its delivery times from
four weeks to one.

Swamidass, in his survey, found that
companies raised productivity by about 4
percent a year from 1993 through 1997 and
reduced inventories by more than 20 percent.
"The record suggests," he said, "that in a tight
labor market that chairman Alan Greenspan of
the Federal Reserve fears, the use of hard and
soft technologies can boost productivity and
take the pressure off of labor costs."

Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company



To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (1645)5/15/1999 5:29:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>  Respond to of 1722
 
Berkshire Sees Drop in Earnings

Filed at 7:57 p.m. EDT

By The Associated Press

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Smaller gains from
investments and lower earnings from insurance
resulted in a 25 percent decline in first quarter
net profit at Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the
holding company of veteran investor Warren
Buffet.

Net earnings in the three months ended March
31 were $541 million, or $356 per class-A
share, compared to $722 million, or $582 per
share, in the same period a year ago.

Much of the decline in net earnings came from
a drop in realized investment gains to $247
million from $470 million. But the company
cautioned in a statement that such gains can
fluctuate significantly without impacting
underlying operations.

This year's first quarter includes the results of
General Re, the largest reinsurer in the United
States and third-largest in the world. Berkshire
acquired General Re, based in Stamford,
Conn., in December.

General Re's first-quarter earnings from
operations, before accounting charges, were
$151 million compared to $250 million. That
decline is due to significant underwriting losses
in both its international property and casualty
business and is life and health business.

The company's largest operation, car insurer
GEICO, broke even from underwriting in
1999's first quarter compared to a pretax profit
of $61 million in the year-ago period, an
anticipated lapse given the last two years' rate
reductions and increases in advertising
expenses.

The earnings were announced after the close of
stock trading Friday. Berkshire's Class A
shares, the highest priced on the New York
Stock Exchange, fell $2,300 to $74,300. The
''Baby Berkshire'' Class B shares, the second
most expensive on the NYSE, were down 50
cents at $2,398 each.



To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (1645)5/20/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1722
 
Millions Trade on Internet While at Work --!!!!>

Some Abandon the Water Cooler for Stock Trading on the Internet

By ROBERT D. HERSHEY Jr. -- May 20, 1999

In Florida, a young dentist tracks stocks between
patients, sometimes even between an X-ray and a
filling. In
Washington State, a freight-company manager logs on to
a financial Web site for four to six hours of his
workday. A designer at a California architectural firm
gets so absorbed in the market that his productivity
falls 25 percent.

The long bull market and cascading advances in
technology have combined to drive capitalism's main
numbers game into the heart of the American workplace,
with millions of wage earners, managers and
entrepreneurs obsessing about Wall Street. Their
obsession, in fact, far eclipses the speculative
1920's, when elevator operators and bootblacks were a
chief source of what passed for information.

"Two years ago I would have never
thought I'd be into doing this," said the
dentist, Norma Victores, 30, of Hialeah,
Fla., who follows the market on the
Internet and has bought part of her
portfolio of 21 stocks and mutual funds
on line. "I used to think it was just for
the big-timers."

While much of the early concern about
workday Internet abuse focused on
pornography, the lure of the stock
market has overtaken it, some
specialists said. The Internet is making a
lot of information available to small
investors that was once accessible only
to professionals.

"That's where employees are really
wasting their time," said Jonathan Penn,
an analyst at Giga Information Group, a
firm that advises companies on
information technology. "I'd definitely
put that first," he added, ahead of
sports, personal E-mail, chat rooms and
pornography.

The flick-of-the-finger ease with which office workers
and others can research, monitor and trade stocks --
often able to return instantly to their assigned tasks
-- is a growing concern for employers.

Most of the people willing to discuss the issue were
self-employed or worked for small companies where
Internet abuses could be dealt with amicably. Larger
corporations, while acknowledging the potential for
abuse, generally denied that employees were using
company time to trade stocks. Some devotees in the
workplace said the activity could be addictive, but
most simply found it a practical method for earning
extra income.

So far, the Government has not been able to measure any
economic effect. Michael Harper, the acting associate
commissioner for productivity and technology at the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggested that the time
spent by workers on the stock market was not unlike
water-cooler discussion of football or movies and might
even be a partial substitute for it.

"We don't know whether they would be working or doing
something else" if there was less absorption in the
market, Harper said.

But according to Media Metrix Inc., a New York company
that meters Internet use much the way Nielsen Media
Research does television, 22.8 million Americans used
Web sites on company time in March. Some 8.2 million
people visited Yahoo Finance, CBS Marketwatch, Schwab,
E*Trade and other financial sites at work, up from 6
million just three months earlier, the company said.

About 25 percent of all corporate Internet traffic,
much of it surreptitious, is considered unrelated to
work.

The stock market "is becoming a huge distraction," said
Victor Woodward, a vice president at Content
Technologies, which develops programs to help companies
create and enforce policies for Internet use. He said
corporate demand for help in curbing stock-related Web
use had quadrupled in the last year. And companies face
growing competition for the attention of their
employees: Internet gateways like Yahoo, Go and Excite,
eager to attract advertisers, use their home pages to
tempt Web browsers to check stock quotes.

On-line trades account for as much as 30 percent of all
buying and selling by individual investors, surveys
show.

"I can't imagine that this is not a problem in the
workplace," said Jill Munden, who oversees Silicon
Investor Inc., the biggest financial discussion forum.
She said 50 percent of Silicon Investor site visits,
which averaged 20 minutes each, came during regular
working hours and that "you have to believe most people
don't divulge trades and research to their boss or
co-workers."

The Web site for Charles Schwab, the broker accounting
for more than a quarter of Internet transactions, now
averages 33 million visits a day, up from 24 million in
the fourth quarter of 1998, according to Daniel
Hubbard, a spokesman. And actual transactions, which
take only a couple of minutes, are outnumbered 26 to 1
by typically longer sessions for researching companies
or mutual funds or to review portfolios.

Schwab's busiest periods, Hubbard found, coincide with
the opening and closing hours of the New York Stock
Exchange -- from 9:30 to 11:30 A.M. and 3:30 to 4 P.M.,
which falls during the workday for most people on the
East Coast.

Take the case of Dean Hatfield, 36, the designer, for
whom earning between $5,000 and $15,000 a month from
on-line trading for much of last year began to threaten
his day job.

"Instead of billing, say, 37 hours during the week, as
I should have, I was billing perhaps 28," said
Hatfield, who works at KRJ Design in Burlingame, Calif.
"It became an issue because the revenue just wasn't
coming in." Hatfield's superiors took away his Internet
access, so now if he wants to go on line he must walk
to another terminal, his activities easily visible. He
likens it to "getting your hands caught in the cookie
jar." Now, he says, "I do it on the phone or from home
-- but it's not day trading anymore."

At American Fast Freight, a company in Kent, Wash.,
that bundles shipments into bigger units and then
arranges for overseas transport, the official in charge
of computers, Jeff LePage, is still struggling to find
a way to "put the kibosh" on a manager who is routinely
logged onto a financial site for most of the day.

"I hadn't really focused on
this until it became
chronic," said LePage, who
has noticed a gradual
decline in the unit's
performance for which he
blames the employee, a peer
he is reluctant to confront.


LePage has switched off the
employee's financial site,
but the employee appears to
be logging on to other
people's
computers. "The battle goes on," LePage said.

Then there is John Alexandrou, a 43-year-old salesman
in Foster City, Calif., who said that for the last
three years he has spent 30 minutes to an hour of
working time a day on the market. "The adrenaline of
trading options, that's got me completely hooked,"
Alexandrou said, adding that the fraternity of
on-the-job market devotees is very large, especially in
Silicon Valley. "You're not going to find very many
people in this Valley who are not distracted by the
stock market," he said. He insisted, however, that
despite his on-the-job trading, he never failed to make
his business quotas.

On-the-job Internet stock activity has been a
particularly visible problem in the high-technology
community on the West Coast, where much of employees'
pay is in stock options and it is common for even those
of low rank to have an equity stake.

None of this necessarily means that investors pay less
attention to their jobs. Ross Brown, vice president of
MSI Consulting, a Seattle-based management and
marketing adviser to high-technology companies, says he
often spends less time tending to his portfolio --
worth in the mid-six figures -- than when he used to
phone orders to a broker, a process he said can mean
"you've chewed up an hour of your day."

Still, the market is seen as an increasingly serious
time eater by many employers, who have only recently
begun to monitor Internet activity in earnest. A survey
by the Society for Human Resource Management in
Alexandria, Va., found 76 percent of members not
bothering to monitor activity as recently as 1997.

Moreover, employees seem to have little trouble
avoiding detection from casual observation.

"One second I was in E*Trade," said Hatfield, the
California designer, who for a time was making more
money trading than in salary. "And the next second I
was doing design in Autocad," a tool of his trade.

"I could hide the day trading quite easily," he said.

Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company