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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (14051)	5/15/1999 2:32:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Good post - You bring up a good point. The same baby boomers that are fueling this market will be the ones selling stock to pay thier medical bills. One correction. I don't believe my chart is showing a downtrend in Drugs just yet. Right now I have a pretty much sideways fork in red on the weeklies that I believe should hold it for sometime. Prices going back to the '98 time frame will hurt a lot of people but it isn't the big one that I think will come eventually. For that one, people will yearn for the prices of the 90s. <ng> This market has been amazing in it's ability to ignore bad news and chug on upward. It will be interesting to see what the final straw that breaks the bulls back will turn out to be. Good Luck to you and if you find any dividend paying stocks that aren't trading at PE ratios of 50 let me know since even if they are bargains compared to most stocks now days, there will be a PE mark down sale in the coming years, this I am sure of, I just don't know the exact day the sale will start ..... yet.<ggg> Good Luck, Lee

To: Casaubon who wrote (14051)	5/15/1999 5:11:00 PM
From: stockycd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Casaubon, In fact, they don't know any better than to sit through corrections. J6P doesn't know to cut losses and therefore gets left holding the bag (empty of course). You are exactly right. I talk to the guys I work with that may say for instance: "The market was up yesterday". When in actuality, the DOW may have been up but the NAS, SPX, DOT, ect was down. Most of J6Ps look at their monthly statements and the DJIA, and that's it! I have heard numerous comments (from 55 and 60 years olds) like, "As long as I still have my principal." or "It will come back up eventually." I have also seen them take losses, but it was at the very bottom of corrections or selloffs. Most "investment advisors" urge J6P to "invest for the long haul". I am of the opinion that institutional investors move the market one way or the other and J6P does not move it at all. Selling 200 shares of DELL will not make a down tick but selling 250000 shares surely will and I don't know a J6P with 250K shares of anything. There is another mode of thought among J6P. They buy a stock. It goes down. They say "Well, I can't sell now, I'll lose money." Then when the stock goes back up above break even they say "I think it's going higher." When fear erodes, greed takes over. If this market tanks next week, it won't be poor J6P selling. Chris