Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: taxman who wrote (22733)	5/15/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

That article is so 1997! The thought processes are completely out of date. 1) set-tops have pretty much been discredited. People watch TV to veg, they don't want to start making on-line purchases during the middle of Will and Grace. 2) Standards are a lot less controllable by one party than they used to be. Windows has thousands of APIs, and control over them allowed Microsoft to keep its dominance in the application and OS space. How many APIs are they going to cram into WinCE boxes that people will use? 3) Big companies now understand Microsoft a lot better (thank you Mr. Boies). That's why all the company deals are non-exclusive.

To: taxman who wrote (22733)	5/15/1999 7:09:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Respond to of 74651

taxman: I saw the article on RB and thought it was a good run down on what the opportunities are. I think it is as much 99 as it is 97. It would make sense for the video people to go with something that is already compatible with 90% of the world's desktops. They need the support of a software company that not only has the greatest market share and has developed the best JAVA implementation available. JFD

To: taxman who wrote (22733)	5/15/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: Jim Lamb	Respond to of 74651

Here is a somewhat optimistic read on the trial from Business Week. Taxman thanks for the article. I'm not a tech head so I don't know how this will play out. t2000 be sure and let me know if and when you buy those Jan2001 options. What strike are you looking at? TIA BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : MAY 24, 1999 ISSUE NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY Microsoft Takes It Down to the Wire The Justice Dept. reckons it has an edge, but... As they prepare for the final phase of the Microsoft Corp. antitrust trial, government lawyers are trying not to be too overconfident. And for good reason. When the trial recessed in February, the software giant was on the ropes: The Justice Dept. had repeatedly scored points by hammering away at dissembling defense witnesses and leaping on such gaffes as a botched technical demonstration. Meanwhile, Microsoft's team did little to shake the government's witnesses. Now, with the trial set to resume as early as May 24, Justice hopes to deliver the knockout punch during the final weeks. It will introduce new evidence that Microsoft's practices stifled innovation among personal-computer makers and harmed consumers. That would shore up a major weakness in the government's case, which was short on documenting consumer harm. ''I think we're in pretty good shape,'' says Stephen D. Houck, a New York assistant attorney general who is heading up the case on behalf of the 19 states that have joined the federal complaint. SEA CHANGE. Microsoft's defense team insists it can pull out a last-minute victory. An early settlement is possible, but sources in both camps say it's unlikely. So Microsoft is readying its key argument: The government's entire case has been rendered moot by the rapid changes in the computer industry since Assistant Attorney General Joel I. Klein filed suit a year ago (page 38). Richard L. Schmalensee, dean of the Sloan School of Management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, will return to the stand to argue that the dominance of Windows software in PCs no longer means very much. He will cite developments in handheld devices, cable-TV boxes, and server computers as proof that Microsoft's grip is loosening and that these changes are benefiting consumers. Observes Washington antitrust lawyer William J. Kolasky Jr.: ''The market is so dynamic that it will correct problems better and faster than the antitrust laws can.'' But the most important change, Microsoft will argue, is the merger of America Online AOL with Netscape Communications NSCP and their alliance with Sun Microsystems SUNW--all aimed at competing with Microsoft. The AOL-Netscape deal, for example, could undercut Microsoft's Windows dominance by boosting the fortunes of Netscape's browser. Microsoft plans to depose AOL Chairman and CEO Stephen M. Case on May 21 to reinforce that point. Microsoft's boldest stroke: It will call David Colburn, an AOL senior vice-president, as a hostile witness. The company will try to show that while Colburn and executives from Netscape and Sun were testifying that Microsoft was harming them, they were secretly forming an alliance to take on the company. Microsoft wants to put the old testimony in a new context--as a strategic move to damage a common enemy. That would undermine the credibility of the government's witnesses. Will this strategy work? Government attorneys shrug it off as a desperate ploy aimed at shifting the focus away from Microsoft's predatory conduct. They argue that despite emerging technologies, the personal-computer market still looks much as it did a year ago--a point that will be emphasized during rebuttal by a returning witness, MIT economist Franklin M. Fisher. CONSEQUENCES. The government also will rely on the testimony of Garry D. Norris, former director of IBM's software strategy division. In desktop computers, he will argue, Microsoft hurt consumers by quashing breakthroughs. For example, he is expected to testify that Microsoft MSFT kept IBM IBM from customizing its startup screen, leading to declining sales of IBM's Lotus SmartSuite and Notes office products, Worldbook encyclopedia, and other software that competed with Microsoft applications. But even if Justice convinces U.S. District Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson that Microsoft committed abuses in the past, the company's it's-a-new-world argument is sure to weigh on Jackson as he ponders a remedy. Jackson is quite aware that a final decision by the U.S. Supreme Court may not come until 2001, and the marketplace could look vastly different by then. Microsoft's strategy is to advise Jackson subtly that any harsh remedies he considers could have unforeseen consequences on the industry. Case in point: When it filed suit, Justice asked Jackson to immediately order Microsoft to package Netscape's browser with its own browser in Windows--a request he declined. No one foresaw then that AOL--also a Microsoft competitor--would eventually own Netscape. Rivals are still lobbying for radical remedies--from breaking up Microsoft to forcing it to share Windows source code. Their chief fear is that Microsoft will now succeed in ''leveraging'' its Windows monopoly. ''If Microsoft is not prevented from recreating its rapacious behavior in other markets, the trial will have turned out to be fruitless,'' says Edward J. Black, president of the Computer & Communications Industry Assn. But a draconian remedy seems less likely now. Even if Jackson chooses to focus solely on the allegations that brought Microsoft into Justice's sights, he'll be hard pressed to come up with a punishment that fits the times. By Susan B. Garland in Washington, with Mike France in New York

To: taxman who wrote (22733)	5/15/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Basically, all these cable & wireless outfits will go with MSFT's OS b/c MSFT is their equity partner - and that makes sense. thanks for the great post.