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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: 16yearcycle who wrote (56878)5/15/1999 6:06:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Eugene,

>> This is the only explanation I have. Feel free to reject it out of hand.

It sounds good. The only objection I have is that experienced speculators will not buy (and keep) the breakout stock after getting burned a couple of times with a specific stock (yhoo/aol/ebay/amzn). So if the run to e occurs again, I have to guess it will be caused by new buyers who have not gotten burned yet, and the other ingredient is a friendly market climate. New buyers for net stocks may be scarce because as you know the nets now have the reputation of stocks that always go down, where as 6 months ago everyone felt they only go up.

The reason I bring this up is to try to predict the strength of the run-up leading to yhoo report around 7/12. and then eBay/aol/amzn. I think there will also be a run for amat/ter/klac this time also and it may be more dramatic than the nets. But it all depends on the climate at the time.

The gist of all this, you may be buying too soon. Bonds may hurt all stocks between now and July (reducing the influx of new breakout speculators who have not yet been parted from their money). And the run to e in the nets may be muted because the style has failed severely twice in a row.