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To: Tradelite who wrote (40322)5/16/1999 4:09:00 AM
From: lee kramer  Respond to of 120523
 
Tradelite...the market functioned during the inflation days of the 70's and early 80's...but not all that well, if you were a perpetual bull. We kept going from expansion to contraction...and those high yields siphoned off much fund/institutional/personal money...i.e., out of stocks and into debt instruments.
I recall being in Rio a few years ago and their inflation rate was so horrendous that prices were "reset" several times each day. In the place I was staying, they'd post the price for a pack of Marlboro's at 11:00 am and again later in the afternoon. It became a game; I was "trading" Marlboro's...buying a few packs when the prices dipped, easing back when prices rose. Thanks for your post. (Lee).



To: Tradelite who wrote (40322)5/16/1999 7:07:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea  Respond to of 120523
 
Tradelite, " wonder how the stock market functioned at all during the years of rampant, unrelenting inflation."

It didn't. A s you recall at the end of 1970, with oil at $40/barrell,
the Dow was 600 . I don't think we are going back to that but certainly any threats towards that direction will be remembered by some Institutional Managers and create high anxiety,

TA

you said All this inflation/interest rate concern makes me wonder how the stock market
functioned at all during the years of rampant, unrelenting inflation.

In the late 70's and late 80's, I wrote real estate contracts for homebuyers that
involved mortgage rates of 9 percent, 9 1/2 percent, 10 percent---and sometimes
when I was writing the contract, the loan officer from whom I'd gotten the rate
quote called to say a new set of rates had just been placed on his desk, so sorry,
the new rate was higher. Rates sometimes went up several times a day.

If I told today's buyers (most of whom are too young to know mortgage rates were
ever that high)that they must pay 9 percent for a home loan, they'd croak. These
young people also happen to have a lot more cash than their predecessors because
of stock gains, so some perspective is needed. Maybe I will have to quote higher
rates soon, but somehow the other indicators that point to much inflation just haven't
shown up yet. I promise not to panic until they do. :)